Peter J Morgan BE (Mech.), Dip. Teaching, Hon. CEO & Chair, Environomics (NZ) Trust
(PJM.forensic.eng@gmail.com)
In the mid-1980s, groups of climate scientists began developing computer climate models of the atmosphere. These models are now known to not properly model key climate parameters. One fundamental error in those models and all subsequent models, except those developed in Russia, relates to a field of physics and engineering known as control systems engineering, which was applied in order to model feedback effects.
Unfortunately, no climate scientists ever asked any expert control systems engineers or physicists to check these models and it was only in the last few years that an independent group known as ‘the Argonauts’, which includes world-class expert control systems engineers, physicists and a mathematician, discovered the feedback error and wrote a 72-page paper explaining the error and correcting it.
My favourite Mark Twain quote springs to mind: “It’s not what you don’t know that gets you into trouble, it’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so!”
The Argonauts’ 72-page paper has been in the peer review stage at a prestigious scientific journal for almost three years but has still not been published. A 12-page summary is named Climate of Error: The Grave Error of Physics that Created a Climate ‘Emergency’.
One of the Argonauts has revealed that the prestigious journal to which they had submitted their paper has neither rejected it nor accepted it, despite several emails querying progress, none of which had elicited so much as a reply. Clearly, the editor of the journal is not behaving in a professional manner and cannot find a reviewer who can refute the paper, so is simply stalling. Unfortunately, by convention, the name of the journal must not be made public until it publishes the paper. If that were not so, I would name it now.
Meanwhile, a peer-reviewed paper by physicists David Coe, Walter Fabinski, and Gerhard Wiegleb – The Impact of CO2, H2O and Other “Greenhouse Gases” on Equilibrium Earth Temperatures – was published on 23 August 2021 in the International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. A pdf file of the paper may be downloaded by following the hyperlink just given. It is now well over a year since the Coe et al. paper was published, and it has never been refuted.
David Coe wrote an explanation of the paper, published on 26 February 2022. In commenting on that explanation, Coe wrote:
The serious issue we have to face is the demonisation of carbon and CO2. In this paper we have simply attempted to isolate the impact of CO2 on the warming of the earth. The conclusion is that of the current warming trend over the past 150 years or so, CO2 is responsible for no more than 25% of that warming and that it will cause little measurable warming for the foreseeable future. The urge for net zero is not only plain stupid but is arguably criminal.
It is a basic tenet of the scientific method – attested to by Albert Einstein himself – that if a new theory in a peer-reviewed paper published in a reputable scientific journal overturns – i.e. falsifies – the previously accepted theory, the new theory and science described in the paper becomes the new truth and must be accepted as such, until such time as it is, in turn, successfully overturned. It is a denial of science to pick and choose which ‘science’ one agrees with, according to one’s ‘climate religion’ beliefs. Those who do that are akin to Luddites.
From first principles, using straightforward physics and the HITRAN database, Coe et al. calculated the climate sensitivity for various gases (that is, the temperature increase caused by a doubling of a gas’s atmospheric concentration).
HITRAN is an acronym for high-resolution transmission molecular absorption database. HITRAN is a compilation of long-accepted spectroscopic parameters of gases that a variety of computer codes use to predict and simulate the transmission and emission of electromagnetic and thermal radiation in the atmosphere.
Coe et al. showed that the climate sensitivity of CO2 is only 0.5°C. Thus the IPCC’s latest ‘best estimate’ of 3°C is too high by a factor of 6. The Coe et al. calculations also showed that the climate sensitivity of methane (CH4) is only 0.06°C and the climate sensitivity of nitrous oxide (N2O) is only 0.08°C – both so tiny as to be irrelevant. The finding of Coe et al. that the climate sensitivity of methane is only 0.06°C is in marked contrast with the IPCC’s claim that methane is 25 times more effective than CO2 in causing global warming, which was adopted without question by the NZ Government and its Climate Change Commission – showing that the NZ Government and its Climate Change Commission have been led astray by the IPCC’s blatant dis-information. However, just before COP27, on 26 October 2022, UN Climate Change released a report that dropped the RCP 8.5 scenario, upon which almost all of New Zealand’s climate laws and regulations are based. The UN Climate Change report states that the world is on track for only about 2.5°C of warming by the end of the century – i.e., an almost imperceptible 0.032°C a year.
The mainstream NZ media has yet to report on this, or, for that matter, the Coe et al. paper. IMHO, this is a gross dereliction of duty. Contrast the UN’s ‘guesstimate’ with Coe et al.’s unrefuted calculations that show that when atmospheric CO2 concentration doubles from the present 420 ppm to 840 ppm, the atmosphere will be only 0.5°C warmer due to the effect of CO2 alone. Such a doubling would, by David Coe’s calculations, likely take around 250 years. With our planet having cooled since 2016 despite CO2 increasing, there is no guarantee that natural effects will not continue to override CO2 effects.
Let us rejoice, for ultimately, “Ye shall know the truth and the truth shall make you free.”
John 8:32
Comments are most welcome.
This is an abridged version of my original 5-page article. To request a copy of the complete article, please email Peter J. Morgan: PJM.forensic.eng (at) gmail.com
