KEY FINDINGS
- 1News-Verian, 15 to 19 October: National 32 (up 4), Labour 27 (down 1, its lowest since the 2023 election), Greens 16, ACT 11, NZ First 8 (down 2), Opportunity 7, Te Pāti Māori 0.7 (1News).
- National, ACT and NZ First reach 60 seats in both of Verian’s scenarios. That is one short in a 120-seat House and three short if overhangs push it to 124 (1News).
- The left only gets to a majority with Opportunity’s eight seats plus enough Māori electorates to create an overhang (1News).
- Luxon is steady on 20 per cent as preferred prime minister, 12 points behind his own party (1News).
- Verian’s final 2023 poll missed by an average 0.9 points, overstating the Greens (+2.4) and Labour (+1.1) and understating National (-1.1). That is one election only (Good Oil AI pollster ratings).
National has surged four points to 32 per cent in last night’s 1News-Verian poll, its best result since February, and Labour has slid to 27 per cent, its lowest since the last election (1News). It is a five-point lead with 18 days to go. Even so, on Verian’s own seat maths the government still cannot count to 61.
National would win 38 seats, ACT 13 and NZ First nine. That makes 60 (1News). If Te Pāti Māori holds a single electorate and parliament stays at 120, the coalition is one seat short. If Te Pāti Māori holds four and Te Tai Tokerau Party holds one, the House grows to 124 and the coalition is three short (1News).
Now look at the other side. Labour 32, Greens 19 and one Te Pāti Māori seat make 52. Add Opportunity’s eight and you get 60, a dead heat. The left only crosses the line in the bigger parliament, where Opportunity takes it to 64 (1News). In other words Hipkins needs a party that has never been in parliament, a party polling under one per cent and an overhang manufactured in the Māori seats.
That last part is deliberate. Te Pāti Māori is asking its people to give the electorate vote to its candidates and the party vote to Labour or the Greens, precisely to build an overhang (Waatea News, the Spinoff). It is legal, and clever, and it means 0.7 per cent of the party vote could hand a coalition of the left an extra handful of seats.
So the result is hanging on a party on eight per cent and a party on 0.7 per cent.
Labour’s position is perilous, and those are 1News’ words, not mine (1News). Hipkins dropped three points to 17 per cent as preferred prime minister and told reporters “one poll is not an election result” (1News). He’s right. The Post’s Freshwater poll on Monday had Labour ahead on 28.7 to National’s 27.6 (the Post). But a leader whose best defence is the other poll is a leader who has run out of message.
National’s jump is real and I’ll take it. Look under the bonnet, though. National is on 32 per cent and its leader is on 20 per cent as preferred prime minister, unchanged (1News). The party is dragging Luxon, not the other way round. In my view he remains the boat anchor on the blue team, and 12 points of daylight between brand and leader is a lot of drag in a race this tight.
Luxon’s other problem is that he has ruled out Opportunity, again, while Verian shows the right could govern in either scenario with Opportunity’s eight seats (1News). Qiulae Wong says Luxon would be her first call anyway (1News). Don’t count on that phone being answered.
That brings us to NZ First. Verian has it down two points to eight per cent and Winston Peters called the poll “crap” (1News). Freshwater had NZ First on 11.8 per cent a day earlier (the Post). Verian’s margin of error is about 3.1 points (1News), so the truth probably sits somewhere in between. Either way, NZ First’s share is the swing seat. A couple of points there, or at ACT on 11 per cent, turns 60 into 62 and the arithmetic stops being a coin toss.
How much should we trust Verian? Its final poll before the 2023 election, four days out, was off by an average of 0.9 points across seven parties (Good Oil AI pollster ratings). The lean is the interesting part. It overstated the Greens by 2.4 points and Labour by 1.1, and understated National by 1.1 (Good Oil AI pollster ratings). One election is a thin record, so I won’t adjust anything. But if Verian repeats its 2023 lean, the left is a little softer than this poll shows and National a little firmer.
So here is my advice to anyone on the right who is sick of parliament being decided by overhangs and kingmakers. Give your electorate vote to your National candidate, because that holds the seats. Give your party vote to NZ First or ACT, because that is where the missing seat lives. National at 32 per cent does not need your party vote as much as the coalition needs its partners above water.
The right is one seat short and only its own voters can find it.
