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The Rules for Predicting the NZ Election

Most of the normal voter behaviours in general elections suggest a centre-right victory, and, though the margins may be tight, a Labour victory depends upon too many abnormal events to occur.

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On Gangs and Politics

On Gangs and Politics

The calculation is how many votes might be gained. Under MMP, a party can outrage most of the country but win an electorate or secure five per cent of the party vote. The gangs can make Te Pāti Māori and the Greens the kingmakers. Do the maths.

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