July 12th, 2022.
The fight is on, not just for the election of the leader of the Conservative party, but for the heart and soul of the party. Will they promote a small government country, with low taxes and low public expenditure albeit it with a social conscience? Or will it be Labour light, high taxes, high borrowing and high public expenditure?
The demand for popcorn is going through the roof in the UK. The fun starts now. The rules for the election of a new Conservative leader have been drawn up and the runners and riders have been declared. By 6pm tonight the contestants were down to 8. Each one had to be endorsed by 20 MPs.
There are presentations to MPs tonight and then the first vote tomorrow. After that vote, the lowest polling MP drops out of the race. The remaining 7 are renominated, but this time they have to be supported by 30 MPs. The process is then repeated until the last two remain. These two are then voted on by the whole membership of the Conservative party, with the result being announced on the 5th of September.
The runners and riders: –
Kemi Badenoch F, E
Suella Braverman F, E
Jeremy Hunt
Penny Mordaunt F
Rishi Sunak E
Liz Truss F
Tom Tugendhat
Nadhim Zahawi E
F = Female, E = Ethnic minority.
That is an interesting turnout for a party that is supposed to be non-inclusive. By contrast, the Labour party, which you would expect to be inclusive and supportive of minorities, seems to be struggling to find a place in the electoral system.
The problem is that the Labour party has changed the issues on which it fights. No longer does the class war exist to the same extent as that battle has been largely won. Gone are the working-class heroes who became MPs; now replaced by middle-class elites from Oxbridge who never venture into the communities that were their core support.
The last genuine working-class warrior was John Prescott. He was a bit of a buffoon, but he was “our buffoon”. Gone are the ex-coal miners and steel workers who entered parliament after hard work and local and community activism. They have been ousted by graduates who went straight from university to work as aides to MPs or party researchers. They have no connection with the old-style Labour supporters and are driven by ideology, forgetting the aim of the Labour party to support and fight for the working “man”. Does that sound familiar?
As a result, the traditional voters are becoming fluid and Boris Johnson tapped into that. Unfortunately, he forgot that the Northern working class are conservative with a small “c” and the things they hate most are being lied to, lack of integrity and dishonesty in their elected representatives. They still hate the “toffs” getting away with things by abusing their authority.
This is where Rishi Sunak, the favourite in the election will have problems. He is Asian, privately educated and filthy rich, with his wife being richer than he is. He fouled up earlier by “forgetting” to cancel his USA green card when he became Chancellor of the Exchequer, and his wife was non-domiciled in the UK for tax purposes. There are two genuine dark horses. One is Penny Mordaunt who has the unusual characteristic of being normal and serves in the Royal Navy Volunteer Reserve, achieving the rank of sub-lieutenant. Since becoming an MP and Minister she has been awarded the honorary rank of Captain and then Commander.
The other is Tom Tugendhat who is an interesting character. He is very popular within parliament and is liked by the grass roots of the party. Although never having been a minister he became the chairman of the foreign affairs committee and has been influential in policy making. He is a Territorial army reservist, having joined in 2003 when he became a 2nd lieutenant and served in the intelligence corps. He rose in the ranks and became a major, having seen active service in Iraq and Afghanistan. He finally achieved the rank of lieutenant colonel.
It is his experience in the army and his understanding of foreign relations and policy that make him valuable. He is seen as having intelligence, integrity and honesty. He could well go surprisingly far before being eliminated whilst the others knife each other. He appears to have avoided the sewers and gutters of grubby politics and is an honest face to present to the public.
Whatever happens over the next few days, it is riveting viewing. Tomorrow is Prime Minister’s Questions, which should be interesting.
