The Runners and Riders Line Up, Fallers at the First Fence

July 13th, 2022.

In the 2014 referendum, there were 3.6 million registered voters in Scotland including 100,000 16- and 17-year-olds. 71% of these voted for independence. All residents of Scotland who were registered voters (which included foreign nationals) were allowed to vote.

Excluded were 795,000 Scots born residents living in the rest of the UK. There is now a movement stirring to allow these people to vote in the referendum. Most of these are thought to be pro UK in a vote. This is going to the heart of the UK’s constitution and although Sturgeon has support in Scotland (but still less than 50% when the independence question is polled), she is vehemently disliked by a substantial number of the Scots in the rest of the UK. They are unwilling to be disenfranchised if there is another independence referendum and tend to have families and jobs down South so don’t want to jeopardise their lifestyle and family life.

It was PMQs today and it was marked by two especially ill-mannered and boorish Scottish Nationalists (members of the Alba party) being expelled from Parliament. This was followed by the first vote for the leader of the Conservative party.

Results from first round July 13^th.

The runners and riders: –

Rishi Sunak                    E                      88

Penny Mordaunt           F                       67

Liz Truss                        F                       50

Kemi Badenoch             F, E                  40

Tom Tugendhat                                      37

Suella Braverman        F, E                   32

ELIMINATED

Jeremy Hunt                                          18

Nadhim Zahawi              E                    25

F = Female, E = Ethnic minority.

The results are illuminating for the Conservatives as there is now only one white male left in the running.

The voting continues tomorrow with a slight difference. This time the lowest voting person will be eliminated until such time as there are two candidates left and then it goes to a vote of the whole party.

Rishi Sunak is polling lower than thought and the view is that he is coming across as a little smug and entitled. There is also the rump of the Boris Johnson supporters who will do anything to stop Sunak from getting the job.

The smart money is on either Liz Truss or Penny Mordaunt facing off against Sunak when the vote goes to the party membership and then they will vote against Sunak. They can’t forgive him for raising taxes to unprecedented levels when he was Chancellor.

The temperature is rising in Parliament and literally, it is heating up outside as well, with the weather forecast for the next few days showing expected temperatures of 34c and 35c. This is becoming the best free show in town.