After Simon Bridges‘ poor performance during the COVID-19 crisis, the poor showing in internal polling, and his Facebook balls up the other day, the slowing moving coup inside National has spluttered back into life.
The word is that Mark Mitchell has decided to get off the sofa and start agitating, which is really bad news for Simon Bridges. Mitchell never does anything without Paula Bennett asking him to do it. He will tell anyone who cares to listen that he is loyal to Paula. I wouldn’t say this but an uncharitable person might describe their ticket as ‘Mitch and the Bitch’.
That means Bridges has lost two of the tight five and when you add in Paul Goldsmith who has been leaking polling data that means three. The tight five is now the tight two, just Bridges and his, so far, loyal lieutenant Todd McClay.
McClay is as cunning as a robber’s dog though and so it is only a matter of time before he too departs.
The caucus now realises that it’s no longer about winning this election, it’s about a result that’s closer to 40% or closer to 20%. With Bridges the result will be closer to 20%.
Currently National has 56 seats in Parliament. If you take an average of the UMR poll and the supposedly leaked Curia poll then this could be reduced to around 38 seats, a net loss of 18 seats. To compound the problem for Simon Bridges, National has 41 electorate seats and 15 list seats. Most of the List MPs, including some clear talent like Nicola Willis and the ethnic MPs, would lose their jobs.
Some seats would also be at risk, like Nikki Kaye‘s and Chris Bishop‘s. They will want high list spaces making the prospect of a Bridges-led National extremely risky if you are a list MP.
The National leadership, in my opinion, is now a four-horse race: Simon Bridges, Judith Collins, Mark Mitchell and Todd Muller.
Todd Muller isn’t a brave man. He likes a sure thing, so he has two choices. He could take his wets to Judith Collins and offer his supporters to her in return for being her deputy. That would be a powerful message for a Collins/Muller ticket to say they need a fresh start for the election. Knife Bennett and Bridges entirely.
He could also try the same with Mark Mitchell but the Mitchell ticket is really the stalking horse for Paula Bennett. Muller will probably go soft and just support Mitchell if he runs. But hell’s teeth – that’s like having a lazy David Shearer minus 20 IQ points and with Paula Bennett pulling all the strings.
The time is nigh. National has nothing to lose by gutting Simon Bridges and everything to lose if they don’t.
As I said in my podcast on Saturday, National risks a disaster of 2002 proportions. Simon Bridges condemned himself with his poor performance since taking over from hapless Bill English. The noose is around his neck, someone just needs to kick the stool away.
No one will notice a coup held right now, and it gives the new leadership time to sack Paula Bennett from the campaign chair role. My pick would be for the new leadership to go cap in hand to Steven Joyce and beg him to run the campaign. This would get a professional back in the chair and also serve to tell Paula Bennett that her time is up. She’s reportedly told Bridges that if Joyce is anywhere near the campaign then she won’t remain as deputy. That just sounds like a good deal for all concerned.
Let the blood-letting commence. When 1News releases their poll shortly the momentum will be unstoppable.
