Greg Bouwer
IINZ
Haviv Rettig Gur recently offered an analogy that deserves careful attention: Europe today resembles the Hobbits of JRR Tolkien’s The Lord of the Rings. In the Shire, Hobbits live peaceful, idyllic lives, oblivious to the threats lurking beyond their borders. They are protected by the Dúnedain Rangers, vigilant guardians who quietly patrol the land, keeping dangers at bay. The Hobbits assume their peace is natural, enduring, and self-sustaining – yet it is entirely contingent on the sacrifices of others.
Europe, Gur argues, is in a similar position. For decades, the continent has enjoyed an unprecedented era of peace, prosperity, and security. Yet much of that stability has been underwritten not by Europe itself, but by the United States, whose military and geopolitical dominance has policed the globe. The US has deterred aggression, maintained freedom of navigation in international waters, and projected power in volatile regions – often ensuring that conflicts never reach European soil.
This structural ‘protection’ has allowed Western nations to grow complacent. Europeans, much like Hobbits, have developed a distorted sense of security and a warped perception of global threats. They frequently underestimate the intentions and capabilities of adversaries, whether it is Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, Iran’s destabilising regional influence, or China’s assertive expansionism. Peace has been mistaken for permanence, and security for inevitability.
New Zealand, too, exists as a modern Shire – perhaps even more insulated than Europe. Our island geography, distance from global conflict zones, and the protection afforded by longstanding alliances have meant that, for generations, Kiwis have never experienced the kind of existential threats faced by much of the world. We have known security without struggle, peace without vigilance, and prosperity without exposure to the harsh realities of geopolitical conflict. This rare and enviable situation is a blessing – but also a potential source of dangerous complacency.
The analogy extends beyond mere military considerations. Western political and media discourse often treats conflicts like those in Israel with a sense of moral certainty, assuming that the forces facing Israel are either defensive or victimised. Yet Israel’s position on the frontline of Middle Eastern instability mirrors the Rangers’ role in Tolkien’s narrative. Israel absorbs threats that could otherwise cascade across the region and even impact Europe and, indirectly, New Zealand. Its vigilance, intelligence operations, and military actions serve as a bulwark against terrorism, regional war, and the proliferation of extremist ideologies.
Europe’s Hobbits, and by extension New Zealand’s Shire, rarely recognise this. Instead, moral judgment is often applied selectively. Criticism of frontline actors like Israel is abundant, while the underlying dangers that necessitate their vigilance – radical groups, state sponsors of terror, and global aggressors – are frequently downplayed or ignored. This misperception is more than intellectual: it is strategic. Societies insulated from danger can afford to moralise, but they risk becoming incapable of meaningful action if the ‘Rangers’ ever withdraw.
Gur’s Hobbits metaphor is not merely literary flourish: it is a warning. The world beyond Europe and New Zealand’s borders is neither safe nor self-regulating. Security is not granted by geography, by culture, or by goodwill – it is enforced by those willing to act when others cannot or will not. For Israel, that enforcement is existential. For Europe and New Zealand, it is an uncomfortable dependence that is easily ignored – until the bubble of peace bursts.
Recognising this dynamic requires humility and honesty. Western societies, including our own, must understand that our relative tranquility is not a permanent state – it is contingent on the vigilance of those who face danger directly. To disregard or delegitimise these actors is to mistake the Shire for reality. It is to believe that peace is inherent, when it is, in fact, borrowed.
New Zealand has much to cherish in its security and prosperity – but those blessings should not blind us to the realities of the wider world. Complacency is a luxury afforded only to those who do not live on the front lines. The illusion of safety is only as reliable as the guardians who stand in harm’s way. Ignoring that reality is a risk the Shire – and the modern Kiwi Shire – can ill afford.
This article was originally published by the Israel Institute of New Zealand.
