The Writing Is on the Wall

‘The coalition has been returned to power.’ Two polls out this month, the Taxpayers Union/Curia and Roy Morgan, paint a pretty gloomy picture for the left.  The Herald Poll of Polls paints a similar dismal portrayal of the road to oblivion or, perhaps more aptly, Damascus. The Labour Party is bad enough in itself but add in the Greens and the Māori Party and on top, unlikely, the Opportunity party. This is a recipe for disaster. If you look at the various policies coming from the parties on the left, they are a potpourri of either being unworkable or totally racist. Neither outcomes have much electoral appeal.

One can almost pity Chris Hipkins. He leads the most moderate party of the three. His predicament with the Greens and the Māori Party reminds me of the title of the ’70’s hit song by Stealers Wheel, ‘Stuck In The Middle With You’. He is, in reality, between a rock and two, possibly three, hard places. He says he does not support many of the policies of the other parties and will rule them out. Really? I don’t think so. I doubt, even if he won the election, he would be able to form a government. And if the Māori Party sticks to its bottom lines, Hipkins is finished.

The bottom lines are the following: they want the findings of the Waitangi Tribunal legally binding on the government, to establish a Treaty Commissioner with powers to delay or challenge government policies, bills and executive decisions that breach Treaty obligations and to establish a $220 million fund dedicated to Māori-led constitutional working groups and discussions leading up to 2040. Additional non-negotiables include pushing for a Māori-funded employment strategy, restored authority in health, major housing developments and stronger protections for land and water. All of this nonsense is delusional at best and dangerous at worst.

Here’s the unenviable dilemma for Hipkins. If he doesn’t agree to the demands he won’t be able to form a government. If he does agree he will be booted out at the next election having caused unimaginable damage to the country. He will be faced with a no-win situation whichever way he jumps. This is a ‘from the frying pan into the fire’ type of calculation. He either self destructs immediately or in three years’ time. His goose is not just cooked, rather it is burnt to a cinder.

There is also the spectre of his own Willie Jackson who will be the equivalent of a ticking time bomb. Will he and his Labour Māori caucus join their brothers and sisters with their ridiculous demands? What sort of combined verbal spears will be thrown at Hipkins to coerce him into acceding to their playbook? Does Hipkins have the wherewithal to stand up to these radical insurgents? He was very quick to strut his authority during Covid but in this situation the boot is somewhat on the other foot. Now he is the one being threatened. Is he, in truth, made of granite or putty? My instinct tells me the latter. Like most on the left, when push comes to shove, they are cowards and cave.

Then we come to the Greens. They don’t have bottom lines but they do have priorities, such as a ‘fairer’ tax system (we all know what that entails), climate action (we all know what that means), upholding the Treaty and making sure Māori perspectives guide all decision making (they have to be joking) and affordable living (the loopy supermarket idea: communism at its finest). The astonishing thing is they expect us to take them seriously.

The Greens are living in their own little smoky haze and should probably be considered more benign than dangerous. During all their years in parliament they have achieved virtually nothing. Like most on the left, their clouded brains reveal a very low level grasp of economics. The Māori Party, on the other hand, present as a very different kettle of fish. Under their watch, the country would be gutted. The economic scales would be well and truly tipped into the red – hook, line and sinker. What they are demanding borders on treason.

Here is the farcical situation that will confront Hipkins should he be, under the circumstances, unlucky enough to win the election. He might have some common ground with the Greens but the Māori Party are an entirely different proposition. They will be no pushover, especially if Mr Jackson decides to throw his weight behind them. Let’s say he does form a coalition government, which he just might, because there is every chance the Māori Party could play nice just to get in the door – then the fun really starts, first with the ministerial appointments and then having their other demands met. We’ll soon find out who the adults are in the room. Probably none.

If you think the current coalition leaves a bit to be desired, wait till this lot take centre stage. It will be a circus the likes of which we’ve never seen before. I would go so far as to predict our country could well become ungovernable. Who would want to be in Hipkins’ shoes leading a cabinet incorporating a mix of incompetents, fruit loops and racists. The trend between now and the election is starting to show itself.