Never has there been such cynicism about politics and the country’s direction. It cuts across many age groups,but the 65+ group includes those who say they are so fed up they don’t even want to vote in the next election. They recall how badly the government treated them at crucial times. They say they are sick and tired of the arrogance and shenanigans surrounding our politicians. The electioneering palaver, ‘Trust us, yes, we’ve messed up, we’ve misled you with our promises but (implied) we’re slightly less corrupt than the other parties,’ isn’t cutting the mustard any longer. One big negative looms large. Voters are ‘still burdened by the failures of the Ardern years’ and indicate it was so bad for them it has affected whether they will vote or not. More on that later.
This is a mainly centre-right observation. Were it from the left, you could be excused from being fed up with their leaders and their policies after their abysmal track record. The polls are showing a steady pattern of undecided and/or not going to vote at all. They are maintaining the parties are all terrible and/or have policies they do not agree with. Astonishingly though, the disillusioned Kiwis are responsible right-wing voters who have always counted voting as both their privilege and responsibility. They are of a more conservative persuasion and never previously considered NOT voting.
The Good Oil has been running its own 2026 polling. The high ‘undecided’ or ‘no vote’ percentage has not shifted in recent months. This is telling!
April 14%
May 14%
June 14%
July 15%
August 14%
The Verian Poll (June) also stands out as high (14%) for undecided, comparable to the Good Oil poll.
Other polls show undecided or non-voter figures are coming down.
· RNZ–Reid Research (July 2026): Undecided or non-voters made up 3.8 per cent of respondents – a significant drop from 7.1 per cent in March.
· Roy Morgan (June 2026): Only 3.5 per cent of electors surveyed did not name a party (down slightly from the prior month).
· Taxpayers Union-Curia: 6.6 per cent.
Peter Williams is an example of a right-wing ‘undecided’. The veteran broadcaster and writer for half a century, writes on his Substack that he is looking for a party that will run a ‘sensible’ government and he hasn’t found one he can commit to yet.
https://goodoil.news/my-vote-needs-a-home/
“My Vote Needs a Home: fifteen weeks out it’s a struggle to find one.”
The horrific covid era was a defining event in New Zealand’s history. The country was torn apart. Understandably, the requirement that forced Kiwis to have a useless and now known to be dangerous jab was appalling. This trauma triggered trusting Kiwis forever. They cannot ignore the fact that the scepticism and acute suspicion was a direct result caused by the dictatorship and lies of a socialist prime minister and her top team. This trauma was doubled when inexplicably all the opposition MPs at the time backed the government’s extensive lockdowns, vaccine mandates and other nonscientific draconian rules.
Don Brash reiterates that the divisive Ardern years have made an enormous downward hit, particularly on the National Party.
As Don Brash said recently:
National is currently polling at around 29 percent. That is an extraordinary position for a first-term government facing an opposition still burdened by the failures of the Ardern years. Emphasis added.
I say that with some reluctance. I know from personal experience how difficult it is to lead the National Party, and I have no desire to pretend that the task is easy. Nor do I claim that the result achieved under my leadership in 2005 was sufficient. We did not win that election. But National secured roughly 39 per cent of the vote, some 10 percentage points more than the party is polling today.
The question Christopher Luxon must confront is why.
The answer, I believe, is straightforward: too many New Zealanders no longer know what Christopher Luxon’s National Party stands for.
In 2023, voters gave the centre-right a clear mandate to reverse the direction of the Ardern Government. That mandate was not merely about inflation, government spending or administrative competence. It was also a rejection of the relentless attempts by Labour to divide New Zealanders by ancestry.
New Zealanders had watched as co-governance was inserted into public institutions, democratic accountability was weakened, and the principle of equal citizenship was increasingly replaced by racial preference. They voted for a change of direction.
Yet, nearly three years later, National remains strangely reluctant to articulate a coherent position on some of the most important constitutional questions facing the country.
On many issues, I consider this government a considerable improvement on its predecessor. But when it comes to racial division and co-governance, its problem is not simply that some of its decisions are wrong.
The coalition parties have their work cut out. To begin to woo back dissatisfied conservative voters, they must face the high poll of 17–18 per cent (RNZ Reid), of Kiwis who are not happy with the direction of the country and the undecided. This ought to be a focus.
Maybe Winston’s commonsense policies will do the deal? Passing NZF’s bill to recognise English as an official language of New Zealand has marked a major victory for democracy and common sense. The parties have three months to give voters strong sensible policies that are a convincing turn to the right.
National, New Zealand First or ACT.
Pick one, or worryingly, let the left back in.
