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Ukraine Hype Falls to Reality Again

The Kursk incursion is shaping up as a strategic blunder.

Is this Ukraine's 'Spring Offensive' moment? The Good Oil. Photoshop by Lushington Brady.

In the presidential debate, Donald Trump made the same plea that some of us have making for years now: negotiate an end to the bloodshed in Ukraine. Get this war finished and just get it done. All right. Negotiate a deal. Because we have to stop all of these human lives from being destroyed.

Except it’s not in the Democrat War Machine’s interest to put an end to the best market opportunity they’ve had in decades. So, the American taxpayer keeps getting bled white, while Ukrainians are literally bled white – with no end to the war in sight.

The War Machine’s camp followers, the media, keep peddling the most damaging lie of the war – that total victory for Ukraine is just another few tens of billions away. To keep the lie flowing, time and again, they seize on fanciful claims of this decisive Ukrainian victory, or that. The ‘Ghost of Kyiv’, the ‘Spring Offensive’ and, now, the Kursk incursion.

To be sure, the Kursk incursion was a blow to Russian pride, but it’s ultimately proving to be not just a failure, but possibly a massive strategic blunder.

It’s often forgotten that the biggest territorial gains by Germany-Austria-Hungary in WWI were in the final year of the war – a massive offensive that seemed like a crushing blow… until it completely collapsed. Within months, the exhausted German army was in full rout.

The Ukrainian offensive in Kursk is likewise beginning to collapse.

Moscow has launched its counteroffensive, already reclaiming several settlements, according to a senior Russian commander.

Analysts say if this is the start of a major pushback, and Moscow really “flexes its muscles”, then Kyiv could be in trouble.

Firstly, the territory seized should not be over-estimated. The Kursk incursion has only captured, almost certainly temporarily, a fraction of the Ukrainian territory Russia has seized – and held. Still, it was a tremendous blow to Russian prestige – or was it? The first invasion of Russian territory since WWII, on the legendary battlefield of Kursk, has likely fired up Russian resolve.

Geolocated footage indicated that Russian forces retook positions east of Zhuravli, and had advanced north and north-east of Snagost, according to analysis by the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The ISW said at this stage the size, scale, and potential prospects of the Russian counterattacks were unclear.

Sydney University’s professor emeritus Graeme Gill, an expert in Russian politics, said Ukraine’s incursion was never going to be sustainable.

And if Russia attacks with “gusto”, Ukraine would struggle to match their manpower, drones and artillery.

“They will outnumber them and outgun them,” Professor Gill said.

The Ukrainian strategic aim seems to have been to both capture Russian territory, to bargain with, and divert Russian troops from eastern Ukraine.

But fighting in the Donbas region – Ukraine’s industrial regions of Donetsk and Luhansk – instead gathered pace.

And Russian forces were now only a few kilometres outside the strategic industrial hub Pokrovsk.

Russian forces have been gaining ground in parts of east Ukraine including the area around Pokrovsk.

Meanwhile, like Germany’s ‘Spring Offensive’ of 1918, the Kursk incursion may well have exhausted some of Ukraine’s best remaining troops.

Anatol Lieven, director of the Eurasia program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said […] there were reports Ukraine might have diverted many of its “elite troops” away from the eastern frontline to Kursk […]

Professor Gill said Ukraine had made the situation in the east worse for themselves by staging the Kursk incursion.

Even worse for Ukraine, they’re rapidly finding out that they’re very much yesterday’s news. The Western left have got a new underdog hero, now.

Travis Reddy, CEO of DefendTex [said…] “They’re out there talking about Palestine and what’s happening out there. I understand their point of view [but] who’s talking about Ukraine?

“We’re here to defend democracy and to enable the peace loving people of Ukraine to stand up to Russian oppression. Why is no one talking about that? It’s only about Palestine for some reason.”

That’s just the way it is with Western ‘peaceniks’: their tiny minds can only think about one thing they’re told to at a time.


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