The not particularly shocking decision by President Joe Biden to not seek a second term is just one in a series of firsts that have been set in US Politics in the 2024 presidential election. Given that there are only two candidates that have any chance of being elected at all, this makes it surprisingly difficult to make any predictions based on the past behaviour of the American electorate.
Joe Biden’s announcement that he will serve only one term is precedent setting in itself. Ten US presidents have failed to be re-elected; four (Theodore Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge, Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson) declined to stand for election for a second term but assumed the presidency following the death of the incumbent before winning the subsequent election. Joe Biden will be the first president to choose to serve one four-year term without having become president via the vice-presidency. Perhaps that isn’t exemplary when one considers Biden is also the oldest person to be elected US President: aged 78 at his inauguration in January 2021. Biden is also the first president to decline seeking a second term after winning his party’s nomination.
