The first poll for the year is out: the Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll. It has thrown up some interesting, some might say intriguing, results. Before commencing an analysis I think we should bear in mind the time of year it was taken. Politics might be a topic for the barbecue but it is in the context of a holiday environment. That could account for the sorts of results the poll has thrown up.
National is down 4.6 to 29.6 and Labour is up 4.0 to 30.9. This is the interesting one. ACT were down 2.2 to 10.8, NZ First were up 2.7 to 8.1, Greens were up 1.2 to 9.5, Māori Party down 0.2 to 5.3 and others were up 2.5 to 5.8. If you look at those results, Labour’s increase had to come from the right.
A lot of emphasis for these results is placed on the economic factors governing the situation people are finding themselves in. Indeed, the top three issues voters have mentioned are cost of living followed by the economy and health. Māori/Treaty issues came in at number four, high enough to lend credence to my supposition.
I personally don’t believe National has lost support on the basis of the economy. I know the country is still in deep schtook and, while it can be argued the government should be moving faster, the enormity of the mess they inherited means it can’t be an overnight turnaround. I concede they could have been tougher in areas such as reducing the bloated civil service.
This leads me to the other reason I don’t think National’s downturn is to do with the economy. I am aware of the saying ‘people have short memories’, but I don’t think the majority of people have forgotten the disastrous Ardern/Robertson reign of terror. I think the fact that vitriol is still being aimed at Ardern is proof of that. They had no more idea than ‘Rachel (Reeves) from Accounts’ (the current UK Chancellor).
I don’t believe Labour’s gain came from ACT voters who, for whatever reason, appear to have switched to NZ First: maybe they are attracted by the rhetoric of Shane Jones. They didn’t come from the Greens, as their vote also increased. It didn’t come from NZ First or ‘others’ who increased their votes, and the Māori Party stayed virtually the same.
That leaves just one party: National. The obvious question is why would National voters switch to Labour? As things stand there is one glaring reason – National’s, and particularly Christopher Luxon’s, attitude to the Treaty Principles Bill. There are a significant number of disgruntled National supporters on this issue to use this poll to vent their displeasure to the National Party.
They might have seen this poll, taken at this particular time of the year, as a good opportunity to send National and Luxon a message. They might see this as a suitable time with submissions now before the relevant committee. They might also realise that doing harm to the party in this poll might cause minimal damage bearing in mind the holiday season is still somewhat in evidence. As a consequence this could be seen purely as a protest vote.
This is where the double-edged sword comes in. Labour should not get too excited or cocky. If my assumption is correct then the boost to Labour is a temporary one. This theory is, to a degree, backed up by the fact that Hipkins in this poll has gone down in popularity by about the same amount his party gone up.
So there is no reason to pop the champagne corks for either of the two main parties. The majority of voters haven’t forgotten that the economic mess was created by Labour but neither are they happy with the language and rhetoric of Luxon towards the Treaty Principles Bill. His increasing vitriol smacks of a personal preference taking precedence over the wishes of the majority of centre-right voters.
That to me shows a lack of political nous that he needs to recognise if he wants to negate the risk of doing further damage to his party. His views are in line with those on the left and voters don’t want them back. We want what we voted for and that was for the Treaty Principles Bill to be passed by parliament so it could then go to a referendum.
That is democracy working as it should. It will be a very sad day if this course of action is refused by a centre-right government. We did not vote for a government that would simply mimic the actions the left would take. That is NOT what we voted for.
