Like most of us, I am delighted to see the trend in the polls showing that a centre-right government is more and more likely next month. Momentum seems to be gathering for a change of government. Even the media, with their enormous left-wing bias, seem resigned to the fact that the incumbents are on their way out. It can’t come soon enough.
National and ACT will be better stewards of the economy than Labour. In 2017 when this government came to power, total Crown expenditure was $99 billion per year. In 2022, Crown expenditure had reached $151 billion per year – an increase of 55 per cent in five years. And don’t forget, inflation was low in all but the last of those years.
To add fuel to the fire, the 2023 budget announced planned spending of another $92 billion in the next four years. And last week, we learned that the government is intending to borrow another $15 billion over budgeted expenditure to see it through current shortfalls.
And now tax takes are falling, due to a likely recession. The government has enjoyed much higher than average tax takes over the last few years too because wages have risen and there has been no adjustment in tax thresholds. Now, as prices continue to skyrocket, so does the GST intake. No government has ever had it so good.
And yet, it isn’t nearly enough. They still have to borrow and spend their way into oblivion. We are a small country and we cannot weather economic woes as easily as some of the larger economies in the world. To me, these are all indicators that we are in serious economic trouble.
When the government announced it had found $4 billion of possible savings, crowing virtuously into the TVNZ cameras, many didn’t understand that this was a mere drop in a bucket. It was a clarion call to undecided voters, who understand very little about trifling matters such as economic management, who probably think $4 billion is a lot. It is not. In terms of Crown expenditure, particularly under this government, it is next to nothing.
And the government gleefully announced that they will be giving free dental care to those under thirty. We cannot afford it. It will cost a lot more money that we simply do not have.
My worry is about undecided voters. I know quite a few people who describe themselves as politically ‘homeless’, who may – or may not – turn out to vote this time. Many were former Labour voters, which is a good thing, but many are former National voters. To the latter group, my message is usually to just hold your nose and vote. Think about what is best for New Zealand. More of the same is not an option.
But what of the rest?
Christopher Luxon is not an inspiring party leader, although I am getting to like him better as we see a bit more of him in the media. But he has one advantage over absolutely everyone on the government benches at the moment. He has big corporate experience. Yes, I know that running a country is not quite as simple as running a company, but there are some similarities. Prudent fiscal management is one of them. That’s what we need right now.
The undecideds seem to be sitting at a stubborn 10 per cent. This shows on just about all the polls we see, including the BFD’s own monthly political poll. Christopher Luxon’s lack of appeal is partly responsible for that figure, but Jacindamania put us into the mess we are in now. So, given a choice, I would rather have a competent politician who is boring than a global superstar who doesn’t know the difference between Crown expenditure and GDP.
So should we all.
National has more talent and work experience than all the other parties put together. Shane Reti, a former GP, will make a great Minister of Health – much better than the academic Ayesha Verrall. Nicola Willis is clearly on top of the finance portfolio and will do a much better job than Grant Robertson – which, let’s face it, will not be difficult.
In light of the red ink that will likely come out during PREFU, it is brave of National to commit to tax cuts at this time. But they have clearly thought this out, and are aware of the enormous amount of wasteful spending that has gone on under this government. Think about the media merger that never happened (and was completely unnecessary), a bike bridge that was never built and light rail to nowhere. The pattern seems to be that the government announces a project with fanfare, spends millions on consultants – and then nothing ever gets done. Consultants always get rich under socialist governments, but they – and government servants – are the only ones who do. Such is the damage caused by socialists, who always end up running out of other people’s money. This time, they really have surpassed themselves.
This government will go down in history as the worst and most damaging government ever. We have to force them out of office. For those former National voters who don’t like Christopher Luxon, remember, there is no better alternative right now. To those former Labour voters who cannot bring themselves to vote for them again – vote for Winston. He has ruled himself out from working with Labour and, hysterically, Labour has ruled itself out from working with Winston. So I think a coalition there is fairly unlikely, and if National, ACT and NZ First cannot agree, then Winston can sit on the cross benches and – hopefully – support the government.
Hopefully.
There has never been a more important election. Don’t waste your vote. And don’t vote red. Three more years of this chronic mismanagement really will see us as the Venezuela of the South Pacific. We need to stop the rot now.
