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How is Labor even in government? Its primary vote is at levels that, not so long ago, would have consigned them to near-oblivion in parliament.
The answer is that, dire as Labor’s vote is, it’s just a bit better than the Liberals’. When the system is skewed to a two-party duopoly that means that the least-hated of the duopoly gets to sweep the board. No matter how few voters: less than one in three actually voted for them.
And that number is growing fewer by the day.
Core support for Anthony Albanese’s Labor government has hit its lowest mark since last year’s federal election, as the prime minister battles to manage an escalating cost-of-living crisis and economic headwinds fuelled by Donald Trump’s war in Iran.
An exclusive Newspoll conducted for the Australian revealed that Labor’s primary vote has plunged to 31 per cent, down from 36 per cent in November last year and 34.6 per cent at the election.
This is within just a couple of per cent of Labor’s lowest-ever vote in Australia’s history. With a primary vote just two per cent lower, Labor was all but wiped out in 1930, losing a massive 21 parliamentary seats. That was just two years after Labor swept to a landslide in the parliament.
Anthony Albanese delivered another parliamentary landslide in 2023, with just 33 per cent of the vote. With that vote plummeting fast to the levels that wiped out the Scullin Labor government, the only thing that can possibly save the government is the continued lack of a credible opposition.
For now.
The prime minister’s personal popularity also took a battering, with voters marking down Mr Albanese’s performance amid rising concerns over rate hikes, the threat of an economic recession and cost-of-living pressures exacerbated by surging fuel prices.
The Newspoll, which included a sample size of 1232 voters and was conducted between Monday and Thursday last week, showed the coalition’s primary vote rising to 21 per cent, with One Nation dropping a point to 26 per cent and the Greens lifting to 12 per cent.
The big story of the last year of polling has been the rise and rise of One Nation. While a drop of just one per cent is indistinct from statistical noise, it will no doubt excite the normiecon media, who’ve been clutching their pearls with increasing hysteria.
Other polls, though, such as Redbridge last week, have One Nation up to 29 per cent, with the coalition plummeting to a dire 17 per cent.
Mr Albanese’s net approval rating fell further into negative territory, with 39 per cent of voters satisfied with his performance, 57 per cent dissatisfied and four per cent uncommitted. The Labor leader’s net approval rating of minus-18 compared to Angus Taylor’s minus-7, with 35 per cent of voters satisfied with the opposition leader’s performance, 42 per cent dissatisfied and 23 per cent uncommitted.
Note how they’re still playing to the old two-party duopoly. With One Nation still easily out-polling the Liberals, why isn’t Pauline Hanson being canvassed as a preferred PM? The Redbridge had Hanson level-pegging with Taylor and a clear 14 per cent ahead of Albanese on approval. A Fox & Hedgehog poll last week had Hanson in positive territory at +5 (down from +9), while Taylor sat at 0, and Albanese sunk to -19.
Especially as yet another crisis exposes Albanese as a complete leadership vacuum.
Mr Albanese’s dominance over the coalition, which peaked under former opposition leader Sussan Ley, has begun to evaporate this year in the wake of the Bondi terror attack, surging cost-of-living pressures and a fuel crisis sparked by the war in Iran.
Over the past four months, 10 per cent fewer Australians believe that Mr Albanese would make the better prime minister. Over the same period, an additional 10 per cent of voters have become dissatisfied with Mr Albanese’s performance.
And since his takeover of the Liberal leadership, Angus Taylor’s approval has dropped, as well.
The two-party duopoly is dying. The legacy media and pollsters just can’t admit it yet.
