Richard Prebble
Columnist, former Cabinet Minister and ACT Party leader
I have a reputation for being able to read polls. Pollsters used to ask me for my analysis. My immediate reaction is to wait and see if it is a trend.
Having got the product warning out of the way, the TVNZ-Verian poll has a good record of predicting election results, with one proviso. The polls have repeatedly misjudged minor-party support.
My pick for the party most at risk of missing the five per cent threshold is TOP, whose strongest support comes from young men – notoriously unreliable voters.
Labour’s 27 per cent is disastrous. Chris Hipkins’ personal polling is no better.
I think Labour is collateral damage from the Greens’ association with gangs. Labour supporters are shocked.
National’s four-point rise to 32 per cent is significant. More significant is the possibility that voters are switching from Labour to National.
Voters crossing the political divide change elections.
But the most remarkable finding concerns ACT and NZ First.
For 30 years under MMP, being a junior partner in a formal coalition has been electorally disastrous.
Yet ACT is polling 11 per cent, compared with 8.6 per cent in 2023. NZ First, despite dropping two points, is polling eight per cent, compared with 6.1 per cent at the last election.
Both coalition partners are ahead of their last election results. That is extraordinary.
National remains six points below its 2023 result. But another finding offers encouragement.
A major study of 84 European elections found that increasing consumer confidence was associated with stronger electoral performance by governing parties. There seems to be an association in New Zealand too.
Back in April, 52 per cent of New Zealanders expected the economy to worsen. Just 26 per cent expected improvement.
On Tuesday night, 43 per cent expected improvement and just 21 per cent expected the economy to worsen over the next 12 months.
A remarkable turnaround.
Economic optimism does not decide elections. But it matters.
Has National timed its run just right?
This article was originally published by I’ve Been Thinking.
