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When Winning a Vote Is Losing

The fact that the vote even happened is a blow to Trudeau’s leadership.

Why doesn't anyone love me any more? The Good Oil. Photoshop by Lushington Brady.

The only thing that’s remarkable about nepo baby Justin Trudeau’s tenure is that it’s lasted this long. But that may not be much longer.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has survived a vote of no confidence in the first major test for his minority Liberal government, whose popularity has waned after nine years in office.

Even winning a no-confidence motion is usually losing, though. The very fact that it could even be moved in the first place is usually a sign of a leader whose grip on power is hanging by a thread. Just as when Paul Keating lost his first leadership challenge against Bob Hawke, the writing was very much on the wall, simply by fact of the challenge being mounted at all.

His tenuous grip on power, however, faces more challenges in the coming weeks, with the opposition Conservatives vowing to try again to topple the government as early as Tuesday.

Following a debate during which MPs traded insults and slammed their fists on desks, they voted 211 to 120 on Wednesday against the Conservative motion to unseat the Liberals.

The vote followed party lines, then. Despite walking away from their coalition agreement, it’s obvious that the lefties at the NDP weren’t about to side with the Conservatives.

Immediately following the no-confidence vote, the NDP again sided with the Liberals to pass legislation on capital gains taxes, averting another political crisis.

Because, of course they did. The left are nothing if not sheep-like.

But you can be assured that the Conservatives aren’t done rocking Trudeau’s little canoe, yet.

Far ahead in opinion polls, Tory leader Pierre Poilievre, 45, has been itching for a snap election since the leftist New Democratic Party earlier this month tore up a coalition agreement with the Liberals, leaving the Trudeau administration vulnerable to being toppled. A combative Mr Poilievre railed against Mr Trudeau, 52, for what he said was a failure to address soaring costs of living, a housing crisis and crime, while doubling the national debt […]

Mr Poilievre vowed to keep trying, with the next opportunity to bring down the government to be presented next week. If that fails, he will have a few more chances before the end of the year.

Mainly thanks to the ever-antsy Frenchies.

The separatist Bloc Quebecois has also demanded concessions from the ruling Liberals for its continued support in parliament beyond the end of October.

If BC side with the Conservatives, that brings them within spitting distance of the Liberal’s 153 seats. But there’s still the NDP, who’ll almost certainly have Trudeau’s back, if push comes to shove.

But it’s still a rocky road for Mr Trudeau’s Little Boy. The Liberals have recently lost two critical by-elections in formerly safe seats. LaSalle-Emard-Verdun, in Montreal, recently fell to the BC. Before that, they lost St Paul’s in Toronto to the Conservatives.

An even worse sign for Trudeau is that even his fellow lefties are turning their backs on him.

The deal with the NDP to prop up the Liberals would have kept his government in office until late 2025. But the NDP, seeing its alignment with the Liberals hurting its own popularity, exited the pact early.

According to an Angus Reid poll, the Conservatives are well ahead of the Liberals, with 43 per cent of voting intention against 21 per cent for the ruling party. The NDP is at 19 per cent.

It appears the writing is very much on the wall, no matter the result of the no-confidence motion.


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