Richard Prebble
Columnist, former cabinet minister and ACT Party leader.
As a former campaign manager, we used to measure the success of a campaign by the size of the crowds.
Both major parties used to hire the biggest hall, the Auckland Town Hall, which holds 1,529.
Campaign meetings were open to the public. We measured enthusiasm by the numbers who could not get in.
We just worried about the sound system.
In 1966, as a teenager, I recall picking up Norman Kirk from the airport and taking him to the Town Hall. He personally tested the sound system. I moved around the Town Hall to make sure I could hear him.
Norman had a booming voice. If the system failed, I would have still heard him.
The meeting that night was packed.
Being an unknown teenager, I went to Holyoake’s meeting to report on it. It was also packed.
What do this year’s campaign openings tell us?
Today’s meetings are ticket-only events for party members. The audience is cast as extras in a made-for-TV event.
Comparing with the last election tells us a lot.
In 2023 National held its opening in the Due Drop Events Centre in the 3,000-seat Sir Woolf Fisher Arena in South Auckland. A crazy location for National. About 1,200 turned up.
Labour in 2023 also misjudged the venue and its support. The party held its meeting in the Kiri Te Kanawa Theatre in the Aotea Centre. It holds 2,139, and just 1,000 attended.
Both parties disguised attendance, National with huge banners and Labour by blocking off the stalls and circle. It was a slight win to National.
This year Labour took no risks. It went to the Due Drop Events Centre and hired the small Four Winds Theatre, capacity just 690.
National moved closer to its base, to the new New Zealand International Convention Centre in central Auckland. It used half of Te Paepae Theatre, with 1,235 seats. National had around 1,000 supporters but hundreds of empty seats.
Empty seats are what the TV audience will remember.
As a TV spectacle, Labour with the smaller crowd won.
But these are supporters, not the public.
When National cannot turn out 1,235 supporters for the prime minister and Labour does not believe Chris Hipkins can attract more than 690, there is a lack of enthusiasm in both parties.
It is Labour that needs the excitement of a high-energy campaign to turn out its base.
A low-energy opening suits National.
So National’s campaign will be the happier.
But it’s a loss for democracy when neither party would even consider hiring the Auckland Town Hall.
This article was originally published by I’ve Been Thinking.
