Lindsay Mitchell
Lindsay Mitchell has been researching and commenting on welfare since 2001. Many of her articles have been published in mainstream media and she has appeared on radio, tv and before select committees discussing issues relating to welfare. Lindsay is also an artist who works under commission and exhibits at Wellington, New Zealand, galleries.
My blog posts often result from a question popping into my head.
In this case, given all the gloom and doom around public servant lay-offs in the capital, I wondered, “How big is the growth in Jobseeker benefit receipt in the Wellington region and how does it compare to other regions?”
To answer this I accessed the latest Jobseeker Support data at MSD. Their chart calculates the percentage of the working-age population (aged 18–64) receiving Jobseeker Support in each region and compares Sept 1,2023 to Aug 30, 2024:
That's interesting, I thought. The year-on-year growth (final column) is highest in Auckland, Central and Waikato. Comparatively, Wellington isn't faring that badly.
But hang on. To get a reliable percentage, a reliable fraction is required. The denominator (middle column) is the ‘Estimated 18–64 resident NZ population.’
Note that the chart purportedly uses June 2023 for both calculations – ‘Reported week’ and ‘Same week last year.’
Yet Wellington and Central have changed population numbers – Wellington’s increased while Central’s decreased. So the column headings are at least partially incorrect.
The official published numbers are totally unreliable.
To answer my question, I can however set up my own graph showing absolute numbers on Jobseeker Support by region, and the percentage change from base, year-on-year. At 27 per cent annual growth, much higher than any other region, Wellington does not look pretty. But neither does Auckland, in terms of absolute growth:
Still, we have been in much tougher times. In June 1993 for instance, 200,000 people were reliant on the equivalent benefit but in a population around two million lighter.
That isn’t much consolation to those losing their jobs today but let’s hope that the unavoidable correction to Labour’s six years of over-cooking the economy with borrowed money doesn’t come with too much more pain.
This article was originally published on the author’s blog.
