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Fifteen days out and it's a coin toss. You've got the receipts.

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Hi,

Fifteen days out, National and Labour are half a point apart on the poll of polls. National, ACT and NZ First get 59 seats. You need 61. The left only gets there if TOP stays above 5%.

Your VIP membership already includes Good Oil AI, my political desk. It's not another opinion column. It's the working:

  • The poll of polls with seat ranges, so you can see how far each party could still move
  • A dossier on every MP: register of interests, votes, donors and the KeyWiki associations, sourced
  • Ask: type a question about Parliament, the votes, the donations or the registers, and it answers with sources you can click
  • Media Monitor: tell it a name and it tells you when that name turns up in the news

You don't pay anything extra. Sign in with this email address and it's open:

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Try one question tonight. Ask it who'd be in Cabinet if the numbers held. Then tell me if it got it wrong.

Know someone who should see this? Anyone can get the full desk free until 15 November with the Election Pass at app.goodoil.ai/insight (card needed to start, nothing charged until 15 November, cancel any time in the app).

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