Jacinda Ardern chose to make this pandemic political: of that there is absolutely no doubt. At the very onset, in the first week of March 2020, a group of our senior epidemiologists whose names are all very familiar to us now: Prof Nick Wilson, Dr Lucy Telfar Barnard, Prof Michael Baker, recommended a pan-political approach to virus control measures.
They suggested a group involving “all the key leaders of all political parties” be formed to consider all responses towards constraining the spread of the approaching epidemic. This way there would be “multi-party support for the final decision”.
She ignored that very sensible suggestion and her strategy clearly succeeded: short-term, in the political sense. But now this ridiculous lockdown strategy has clearly failed, she will carry the can for it, and she deserves to.
We can expect to see scapegoating on steroids as she flaps about casting blame, throwing one ‘advisor’ after another under the wheels of a bus. We can expect her media cheerleaders to change tone and to start talking about the ‘inevitable’ ‘unstoppable’ force of nature Jacinda bravely kept at bay for so long.
The only thing inevitable is the loss of trust in her and the ‘Elimination’ brand she sold herself on. Good job, it can’t come soon enough.
The stark warnings about lockdowns were in plain sight, not from armchair experts, and not from Covid hindsighters, but from Donald Ainslie Henderson – perhaps the world’s most successful epidemiologist – from 2006: ‘Disease Mitigation Measures in the Control of Pandemic Influenza’
“The negative consequences of large-scale quarantine are so extreme (forced confinement of sick people with the well; complete restriction of movement of large populations; difficulty in getting critical supplies, medicines, and food to people inside the quarantine zone) that this mitigation measure should be eliminated from serious consideration” and adding “The problems in implementing such measures are formidable, and secondary effects of absenteeism and community disruption as well as possible adverse consequences, such as loss of public trust in government…are likely to be considerable”
‘Eliminated from serious consideration’, now that’s an Elimination strategy I can get on board with.
The only question is: how long will the prime minister ‘do a little dance’ like some demented Dalek while screeching, “Eliminate…eliminate!” long into the strategy’s death throes, ensuring only that our suffering will go on and pointlessly, expensively, infuriatingly on?
Mother Nature won’t be beaten, fact: some of us are going to catch the sniffles, but try to have a nice day anyway.
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