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Who Would Be an MP on the ONCB Poll?
UPDATE: Revisions at end of post, based on latest poll published Monday.
Some readers have asked for a post looking at who would be an MP on the basis of the ONCB poll out last week.
The poll itself states that Labour would have 62 seats, National 41, ACT 9 and Greens 8.
The complicating factor is assumptions on electorate seats. Rather than cherry pick individual seats, for the purpose of this analysis, let’s make the following assumptions.
- ACT hold Epsom
- Labour retains all current seats
- Labour picks up the new seat of Takanini
- Labour wins electorates off National where there is an incumbent List MP and majority under 5,000 – being Hutt South, Wairarapa, Maungakiekie and East Coast
- Labour wins Auckland Central (based on The Nation poll)
Note this is not what I think will happen. These are just assumptions for the purpose of answering the question.
If the electorate seats did fall as above, then the breakdown of seats for each party would be:
Labour: 35 electorate seats and 27 list seats
National: 36 electorate seats and 5 list seats
ACT: 1 electorate seat and 8 list seats
Greens: 8 list seats
The Labour MPs would be:
Those from Andrew Little down would be List MPs.
The National MPs would be:
Those from Paul Goldsmith down would be List MPs.
The ACT MPs would be:
1 SEYMOUR, David Breen
2 van VELDEN, Brooke
3 McKEE, Nicole
4 BAILLIE, Chris
5 COURT, Simon
6 McDOWALL, James
7 CHHOUR, Karen
8 CAMERON, Mark Stuart
9 SEVERIN, Toni
The Green MPs would be:
1 DAVIDSON, Marama
2 SHAW, James
3 SWARBRICK, Chlöe
4 GENTER, Julie Anne
5 LOGIE, Jan
6 SAGE, Eugenie
7 GHAHRAMAN, Golriz
8 TUIONO, Teanau
I’ll do an update on this closer to the election.
UPDATE:
The latest ONCB poll came out on Monday night and has slightly different numbers, so an update to reflect that.
Labour now has 59 MPs, not 62. So Rosewarne, Boyack and Peke-Mason would not make it. Steph Lewis would be last MP in.
National now has 43 MPs, not 41. So Maureen Pugh and KS Bakshi would make it back in.
ACT gets a 10th MPs so Damien Smith would make it also.
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