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It’s the time of the year when I do 20 predictions for the forthcoming year. I got 13/20 right for 2020 so we’ll see how I go with 2021. Here are my 20 predictions
1. The Serious Fraud Office will get a conviction in at least one of the two cases they have before the courts around political donations.
2. After four years in office the Government will not have achieved even 8% of its ten year targets they adopted in 2017 for houses or trees.
3. Trevor Mallard will be knighted before 2022
4. NZ First will not wind up in 2021, and will say they plan to contest the 2023 election.
5. Joe Biden will be inaugurated on the 20th of January 2021.
6. There will be no travel bubble with Australia operational by end of March 2021.
7. The 2021 Budget will forecast OBEGAL deficits for at least the next six years.
8. The unemployment rate will exceed 6% in 2021.
9. The official child poverty stats for the year to June 2020 will show more children in material deprivation than in June 2017.
10. There will be no prosecutions arising out of “evidence” found in Pike River.
11. The Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary will not come into force in 2021.
12. The Government will extend the bright line test for housing from five years.
13. Judith Collins will remain Leader of the National Party.
14. A Green or ACT List MP will resign from Parliament.
15. The Government will decline to establish a Royal Commission into NZ’s response to COVID-19.
16. The Republican Party will retain control of the US Senate after the two Georgia special elections.
17. The UK and EU will agree on a trade deal.
18. A former Labour MP will be appointed Ambassador to the US.
19. Labor will retain power in Western Australia after their election.
20. Jacinda Ardern will get married.
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