It is traditionally thought that New Zealand has a three-year term for governments. While strictly true, in reality, it isn’t.
Matt McCarten was the guy who explained to me that our real term of parliament is actually six years, split into two three-year halves.
If your government is good in the first half, the first three years then voters allow you back on the field to play the second half.
But if things are looking a bit dodgy, or they really can’t support you playing anymore, the government then gets booted from office.
One-term governments are rare. Labour has had two, in 1957 under Walter Nash and in 1972 under Norman Kirk, who died and was replaced by Bill Rowling. They’ve also had two goes at a two-term government, 1984–1990 under David Lange, Geoffrey Palmer and Mike More, and now 2017–2023 under Jacinda Ardern and Chris Hipkins.
National has never had a single-term government, and never a two-term government. They’ve mostly had three-term governments, and once a four-term government. Since World War II they’ve had a full game five times and also got a first half in the second game, the sole exception being two full games completed when led by Keith Holyoake.
If politics is a game of two halves, Labour has completed just three full games of two halves: two where they didn’t get to play a second game and only under Helen Clark did they get a third half.
Based on my analogy of games it is clear voters trust National-led Governments far more than Labour-led ones.
Since World War II National has governed for 48 of the 78 years, and Labour just 30 years.
It really is a game of two halves.
And so now we start a new game.
The election was an emphatic vote for change.
Voters chose the centre right, with the three parties making up that bloc scoring 54.39% of the vote while the parties of the woke, racist and communist persuasion scored just 40.28%.
The divisive nature of the Ardern/Hipkins regime has been comprehensively rejected by the voters of New Zealand.
Labour’s electoral support has plummeted from 50% in 2020 to around 27% in 2023, leading to terms like “bloodbath” and “historic defeat”.
Analysts point to several factors contributing to this setback:
- Firstly, by Neglecting Working Class Roots. Labour is accused of losing touch with its working-class base, as it’s increasingly led by a middle class neglecting key issues for traditional supporters.
- Secondly with an Economic Disconnect: The party’s inability to address economic concerns and a perceived cost-of-living crisis left the voters disillusioned.
- Thirdly, the divisive nature of their racist Co-Governance focus: Some argue that Labour’s shift towards co-governance and decolonisation agenda diverted attention from economic and working-class issues, alienating sections of the population.
- Finally their appalling COVID Response and Broken Promises: Critics blame Labour for mishandling the COVID response, vaccine rollouts, and failing to deliver on key promises.
The last point is the most catastrophic: Not a single one of their flagship policies in the 2017 election came even remotely close to being achieved.
They couldn’t build a house, even if you sat them in a room full of Lego. Not a single millimetre of track has been laid to the airport, let alone to Mt Roskill.
Child poverty is still with us. Despite claims that they’ve lifted thousands out of poverty, if you dared ask the parents of those ‘saved’ children, I think you’d find they think they are still living in poverty.
The view across the electorates is devastating for Labour. There are only two times they have lost Mt Roskill. The first was after the ravages of the Lange/Douglas era. The second was in this election.
That’s how bad this election has been for Labour. They burned 50% of their electorates.
In the wake of this devastating loss, Labour must grapple with the existential question: What is the point of Labour in the 2020s?
Meanwhile, we must await the result of the special votes. The final positions of all parties will change. The special votes represent 20% of the vote.
It is rather presumptuous of National and Act to think it won’t change.
I fully expect both those parties to lose a seat. Then they will need NZ First, and that is a good thing because, after interviewing Winston Peters on election night I was left with the impression that there is some unfinished business with him and retribution on Labour.
Even better is his resolve to have an independent inquiry into Covid.
But imagine how much more powerful his position would be had those freedom voters who fell for the spin, the misdirection, the hopium and the folly of those minnow parties had voted NZ First. Instead of 8 MPs, they could have had 12 and three more freedom candidates in the house.
It was a lost opportunity. Voting your conscience will likely hand seats to Labour and National. I bet that wasn’t your intention.
You’ve had your protest vote and no one noticed. Well done.
But for now, we let the democratic processes continue, and we will discuss developments as they come up.
Because like rust, politics never sleeps, and we here at The BFD are here to inform you and hold the politicians to account.
But celebrate: together we helped get rid of the worst government in living memory. Good riddance to them.
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