Owen Jennings
Former National President of Federated Farmers
I like asking people to estimate how much methane is being produced by our farmers because they are regularly told that half the greenhouse gas emissions in New Zealand come from down on the farm. Most have not got a clue. Some guess and get it wrong by miles.
Being a helpful sort, I suggest they consider the whole atmosphere around the globe to be like a road journey from Auckland to Wellington. I then ask how far along the motorway would methane from NZ farms get them. After explaining to me that it is a daft comparison, they take a stab. They usually start way too high – “couple of K? Nah, hang on it would be more like 100 metres or so.”
It’s time to pull out my rule. I show them half a metre and they go, “Wow!” Me: “Hang on, it’s not half a metre, 500 millimetres. It’s not 100 millimetres. It’s not even 10 millimetres.” Now I have their attention.
“It’s a whole 1.7 millimetres Around 1/16th of an inch if you are still in that language.”
Most people think there is some mistake. “Only 1.7 millimetres out of 640 kilometres?” I explain it is one part in tens of billions. Work it out yourself. All methane from all sources is 0.00018% of the entire atmosphere. Methane from all livestock is 15% of that tiny amount and New Zealand has 1% of those villainous livestock.
For that absurdly minute amount, NZ farmers are proposing to tax themselves over a billion dollars. Having been beaten black and blue for wrecking rivers, accused of poor animal welfare, muddy paddocks and more, they are feeling a little cowed. “Maybe we better pay something, even if we are not a real problem.”
“Hang on,” I hear. “Methane might be minute but it’s heck of a powerful.” Yup, molecule for molecule methane is a more potent greenhouse gas when it comes to radiative forcing. Some say 5 times, some say 25 times, but most agree it’s around 30 times. So, is methane doing 30 times the damage? Nope. For every molecule of methane there are at least 250 molecules of CO2 and 5,000 molecules of H2O all trying to do the same thing. So: strong but very heavily outnumbered.
Dig into the science and you learn that methane gets a hard time on the electromagnetic spectrum where other greenhouse gases swamp it, making its radiative forcing ability extremely limited. One tough guy with one hand tied down and playing against a huge team of smaller guys.
Professor Emeritus Dr Geoff Duffy, a world authority on greenhouse gases, reckons our ruminant methane could contribute 0.001 °C every 100 years. In other words, too tiny to even measure.
So why are farmers falling over themselves to pay taxes on a non-problem?
It’s politics. James Shaw has his green cronies all over him demanding action. The vegans, the vegetarians, the farmer haters, the climate change extremists are not letting him give an inch. He threatens farmers with dumping them into the Emissions Trading Scheme where they would pay over $80.00 a tonne and rising fast. By some sleight of hand measuring, farmers are supposed to be producing 40 million tonnes of carbon. You don’t need a calculator to see farmers are facing big bills if Shaw uses the reserve position already in legislation.
Here is the absurd part. Paying taxes on a non-existent methane problem will cut our farm production – as much as 15%. Because the world is hungry, other farmers, untaxed, in other countries, will make up the difference.
NZ farmers have the lowest carbon footprint on the planet so whacking them will actually increase the world’s gas emissions, not reduce them. Bizarre!
Meanwhile, NZ signed up to the Paris Accord which says do not take action that reduces food production. That document has been hidden deep in the bottom drawer.
Topping it all off is the fact that NZ’s total ruminant methane levels are dropping and will drop even more as trees take over from livestock. With new technology, our methane levels will continue downward. Did you know we pay offshore companies to come and plant trees on our good sheep and beef farms? Trees that most likely will never be harvested.
You see, methane is a revolving door. It only lasts 10 years in the atmosphere. When livestock numbers are falling like they are and have been for 15 years, there is more methane disappearing than is being added. It’s called ‘net zero’ or in truth slight cooling.
National will be all over this, won’t they? Well no, actually. Luxon and co have done their polling. They have more votes among the Remuera mummies and the Botany Merc drivers than their old mates down on the farm. Is it any wonder that Groundswell is alive and well?
Another victory for politics over economics, for feelings over facts, for extremism over rationality, for popularity over integrity.
