In his Political Roundup, Bryce Edwards has discussed what he calls the “big implications of National ruling out NZ First”
The National Party’s chance of taking power this year now hinges on Winston Peters’ downfall. Conversely, Peters’ options for staying in government mean sticking with a Labour coalition. This situation was clarified yesterday when National leader Simon Bridges announced he was ruling out forming any sort of government with New Zealand First.
Bryce Edwards
Edwards thinks that it is a reasonable electoral strategy for National to attempt to kill off a minor party capable of handing them the keys to government and enabling them to become a Majority government.
“For months, National’s best (and only?) hope of winning Election 2020 has involved keeping New Zealand First down below the 5% MMP threshold, and out of Parliament altogether.”
Gordon Campbell
If you are as confused as I am about how this shooting yourself in the foot strategy oops “Pathway to victory” will work here is their thinking.
Getting to that point would require National to win very close to 45-46% of the total vote and for David Seymour’s Act Party to win two MPs (or more)…. in order to get National into a position where it could hope to form a minority government.
While I can see ACT doing better this time around I do not see National doing better unless they have a change of leader. This entire election campaign is going to be dogged by the Chinese donation scandal. Bridges can’t successfully fight a campaign with that hanging over him especially when he is on a subterranean 5% approval rating to start with.
Claire Trevett thinks that Bridges has made a calculated gamble.
“Simon Bridges is around the poker table and has calculated that Winston Peters is bluffing about his hand – and so he is holding. Bridges’ unequivocal decision to rule out any deal with NZ First after the election is a gamble. But it is a calculated one. Bridges has worked out he has more to lose from keeping Peters on National’s radar than he does from ruling him out. Bridges is betting Peters would always have sided with Labour if he was the kingmaker in 2020 anyway”
Simon Bridges’ big gamble on National ruling out Winston Peters (paywalled).
I think that he has played Russian Roulette with a revolver where all the chambers contain a bullet. By taking away the possibility of a coalition with NZ First he has backed National into a corner and handed NZ First a winning play. Bridges by making his declaration has made an ultra-left Labour-Green government seem inevitable UNLESS NZ First rides in on a white charger to save the day.
Anyone who doesn’t believe that National and ACT will be able to form a government without NZ First may now consider giving NZ First their party vote to ensure that the inevitable Labour-Green party coalition is tempered by the inclusion of NZ First. Winston Peters stopped the Capital Gains Tax and right now he has the power to stop or improve the next tranche of gun laws. With Green politicians like Julie Anne Genter in positions of power does anyone really want to see their ideas given free rein?
Does anyone really think that a deeply unpopular National leader can lead his party to a better election result than what one of National’s most popular leaders was ever able to achieve under MMP? If the answer is no, you know that he can’t, then you also have to recognise that his so-called winning strategy is as winning as standing in front of a firing squad and yelling, “ready, aim fire.”
National needs a new leader who has the ability to negotiate successfully with NZ First. Then and only then will they have a realistic and achievable path to victory. As it stands now Bridges has handed a victory to Ardern on a silver platter and the only way that voters can mitigate the damage that another three years of the Greens and Labour in power will cause to New Zealand is to give their support to a handbrake called NZ First.
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