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The polls strongly suggest that Simon Bridges has about as much chance of becoming Prime Minister as I do: ZERO.
This is not an attack on Mr Bridges, his popularity, leadership, competence or personality. It is a simple numeric exercise.
With 120 available seats, the party that has 61 ends up with the majority and the government benches. Of course, since we’ve had MMP, no single party has ever managed to govern alone. The closest I think we’ve ever come to that was 2014, when National under John Key, managed 60 seats; still one short, but with coalition partners to spare and the other parties not even close, we had a National-led coalition government. Just as an aside, it was an odd parliament with 121 seats because Peter Dunne won an electorate seat but United Future only got 0.2% of the party vote meaning they shouldn’t have had a seat at all. But that’s how MMP works.
So as we look to September 2020, the least likely outcome based on history and polling, is National to govern alone. For a change of government to take place, National will need a coalition partner no matter what else happens.
We are only four months away from September and other than ACT, there is no obvious potential coalition partner for National. While we have no idea which, if any of the minor parties will get in and how many seats they will get, we do know that Mr Bridges has ruled out a coalition with NZ First and the Greens will never work with National. That further reduces the chances of a change.
No matter what we think of the current government, if the polling turns out to be even close, National will lose seats. At the 2017 election, they won 44.4% of the party vote giving them 56 seats. Bill English was unable to negotiate a deal with Peters and the rest is history. But please don’t get bogged down in Peters being a turncoat and choosing the wrong side. It’s not relevant to 2020.
What is relevant is the popularity of the current prime minister reportedly at 67%. Even if we knocked off 20% just because we can, she would have 47% support. Let’s knock off another 10% because we can and she will have 37% which coincidentally, is close enough to the Labour party vote at the last election (36.9%) and look – they are today the government and National is not.
Add the related positive polling Labour gets alongside the leader’s – purportedly 55% against National’s 29% and I repeat, Simon Bridges has about as much chance of becoming Prime Minister as I do: ZERO, and should the party vote follow the current polls Labour would govern alone.
Great news – no NZ First – No Greens. Just Jacinda and her highly skilled cabinet with a free hand.
Of course the polls were wrong about Trump, they were wrong about Brexit and they were wrong about Australia. Maybe New Zealand will be the only one they get right.
Please convince us that it can’t happen.
Pretty please. With a cherry on top?
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