Election Day in the United States, to elect all 435 congressmen, 33 of 100 senators and the president, will fall on 5 November 2024; just 18 days from now. Democrat candidate Vice President Kamala Harris has led Republican candidate President Donald Trump in the polls by more than 1.2 per cent since 31 July 2024 and current trends as measured by fivethirtyeight.com show that she is in the lead by 2.4 per cent as of 15 October.
While leading in the national polls is positive for the ‘vibe’ of a candidate’s campaign, it doesn’t actually determine the winner of the election. Voters do not directly elect the president, rather they elect members to the electoral college in their state in a number equal to their congressional delegation (two senators plus representatives in congress) resulting in an electoral college of 535 members plus three for the District of Columbia. Since the first contested presidential election in 1796, four Republican candidates have won the electoral college while losing the popular vote (Rutherford Hayes in 1876 by three per cent, Benjamin Harrison in 1888 by 0.83 per cent, George W Bush in 2000 by 0.51 per cent and Donald Trump in 2016 by 2.09 per cent).
