One News released its latest poll on Monday night and it echoes results from the Curia poll and also the Roy Morgan. One poll may be an aberration, two polls are a coincidence, but three polls are a pattern. Perhaps it is time National started talking about the elephant in their caucus room called Christopher.
A new 1News Kantar Public poll shows a bump for the Green Party but a slump for National Party leader Christopher Luxon.
The poll also places Te Pati Maori squarely in the kingmaker role again, with the numbers to secure a Labour-Green-Te Pati Maori coalition in the Beehive with 63 seats to National and Act’s 57.
According to the poll, which surveyed 1002 eligible voters from March 4 to 8, if an election were held tomorrow, Labour would be likely to attract 36% of the party vote, and National 34%.
Those figures were down 2% and 3% respectively, and translated to 46 seats for Labour and 43 for the National Party, presuming Waiariki MP Rawiri Waititi retains his seat.
That means neither party has the numbers to govern alone.
1News
Are you getting nervous yet? You should be. National should be streaking ahead at this stage in an election year, not languishing behind Labour. But languishing is precisely what they are doing with six months left until the election.
And the news gets worse:
Preferred prime minister rankings will be disappointing for National’s Luxon, who plunged to 17%, a 5% drop on the last 1News Kantar Public poll.
To add insult to injury, Labour Party leader Chris Hipkins picked up almost all of those points, rising to 27%, a 4% jump on his previous result.
Act Party leader David Seymour is steady on 6%, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters is up 1% to 3%, and some still hung on to former prime minister Jacinda Ardern, with the Mt Albert MP on 2%, down 3% on the last poll, which was held just after she had resigned.
1News
National is going to have to face some cold hard facts. Christopher Luxon is failing to fire. He looks rehearsed, poorly advised and inauthentic. His responses to interviews are the same. He utters blithe rehearsed answers that his body language shows he neither believes nor can fake believing.
He is a corporate shill, a puppet to others like John Key and lacks the ability to resonate with the everyday bloke. He looks fake, he sounds fake and he is fake.
Opposition leaders have to show that they and the party they lead are ready to govern. But if they sound like the other side and act like the other side then they just look like a poor facsimile of the other side and give the voters no real choice, so they end up voting for the status quo.
Damien Grant called it back in November last year:
Luxon can be that leader, and it might be who he truly wants to be; but it is not the role he is currently playing which is why, without change, the pinnacle of his political career will be the quality and graciousness of his concession speech.
Stuff
If National doesn’t address the elephant in their caucus room called Christopher then that is precisely what he will be doing at about 10pm on election night this year.
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