Why yes. Yes it is.
You probably know that Mark “The Zuck” Zuckerberg has decided to take on Elon Musk and has released a Twitter rival called “Threads”. Here’s why I think it’s going to be a big fail.
Unless you can use leverage (as Zuckerberg has done) to get people to join your platform, it is very difficult to get people to join let alone even use your app. Much harder still is to get them to stay. Since Zuckerberg was able to use Instagram to get users, a large portion of whom were auto-signups, the former was easy. The latter, not so.
Firstly, because he didn’t have to work to get them, users are much less likely to stay as active users. Secondly, Instagram users aren’t the same as those that use microblogging services such as Twitter; meaning that Threads is mostly likely to turn into a version of Instagram but with more words.
And thirdly, and perhaps most importantly, Threads is mind-numbingly boring…
(Be still, my beating heart.)
There’s no real time uncensored reporting on major events by ordinary people. There’s no rough and tumble. Twitter may be a sewer but, even though sewers may stink a bit, at least sewers are somewhat interesting. Threads is like looking at an empty rusty sewer pipe.
Threads is undemocratic. Notwithstanding celebs and the like, Twitter gave everyone an equal chance to become Twitter-famous. With Threads it all depends on how popular you are on Instagram. And if you’re a completely new user, forget about it.
As for users, you’ve got those that are auto-signups. You have those who signed up just to check it out. And you’ve got those who jumped from Twitter just to give Elon the middle finger. How long before they realise that Threads is no more than a poor imitation of Twitter?
And then there are the legal issues. It’s no secret that a lot of former Twitter workers who got culled by Elon are now working for Zuckerberg on Threads. It’s also reasonable to say that many of them took with them intellectual property that Threads is using. When Elon takes Zuckerberg to court there is no doubt that he will wipe the floor with him.
My prediction is not that Threads will disappear. Nor is it that most people will end up removing their accounts. My prediction is that most users will become inactive users, maybe checking their accounts now and then. The users that will stay as active users will be those who like posting inspirational fake quotes, pictures of their cat… those types. In other words, like I say, Instagram but with more words.
