The latest Roy Morgan Poll should sound a warning to the Government, particularly the National Party. It is unpleasant reading but is not at all surprising given the constant media attacks on this Government.
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for May 2024 shows support for the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) has crashed in May, down 4.5% points to 48.5% with a narrow lead over the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition surging to 47% (up 4% points).
For the National-led Government support for National was down 3% points to 33.5% – the lowest support for National since last year’s New Zealand Election, support for ACT decreased 1.5% points to 9.5% while support for NZ First was unchanged at 5.5%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour jumped 5.5% points to 30% – Labour’s highest support for nearly a year since June 2023, support for the Greens was up 1% point to 14% and support for the Maori Party was down 2.5% points to 3%.
A further 4.5% (up 0.5% points) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 3% (up 1% point) who support The Opportunities Party and a further 1.5% (down 0.5% points) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, Democracy NZ, New Zealand Loyal, NewZeal and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
Roy Morgan
It staggers me that a party like Labour, which was tossed from office, mostly because they were deadset useless and still have only useless MPs there, can be competitive with National.
This shows you that, pretty much as I predicted in the lead-up to the elections, National has a problem.
They have a leader who no one much likes, who slopes around playing pocket billiards or waving at people like a whoopsy.
We got rid of Ardern, and drove her from office, for the same sort of behaviour.
Now, don’t get me wrong, I’d rather have National than Labour leading the Government, but I get the distinct impression that Christopher Luxon is not enjoying his job, and it shows. National DOES have a problem, and it needs to sort it out fast.
The problem manifests itself when you look at the break down between men and women.
On an overall basis, men heavily favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government on 60%, almost double the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on only 33.5% – a gap of 26.5% points.
In contrast, women are heavily behind the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 58.5% – well ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 39% – a gap of 19.5% points.
Support for the governing coalition is strongest for older men. For men aged 50+ there are a massive 64% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First almost double the 33.5% supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. Support for the governing parties; National (44.5%) and ACT (14%) is stronger amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
For younger men aged 18-49 there is also strong support for the governing coalition with 56.5% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First compared to 33.5% that support Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party.
Women aged 50+ are narrowly in favour of the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 51% compared to the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition on 45.5% – a gap of 5.5% points.
Younger women aged 18-49 are the biggest supporters of the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 65.5% almost double the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition on 33.5%.
Support for both the Labour Party (39%) and Greens (22.5%) is strongest amongst this age and gender group. More than half of the 15 Greens MPs elected in October 2023 were drawn from this gender and age group of women aged under 50.
Roy Morgan
Honestly, I despair at the state of female voters. They are letting their men-folk down.
National will of course arrogantly dismiss this poll, but it is the second in a row showing a decline. There is a problem, best to act now while it remains a small problem.
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