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Labour’s vote has collapsed into the 20s as the centre-right grabs a lead in the latest 1News Verian poll. While the news might sound good for National, there is still the Luxon problem to deal with.
Labour has sunk below 30% in the party vote in the latest 1News Verian poll, a 4% drop in the past month and its worst performance since Chris Hipkins became party leader.
The poll, conducted from August 12 to 16, puts Labour on just 29%. That’s a huge fall since the last election when it received 50% of the party vote.
It’s also seen Hipkins’ worst result in the preferred prime minister stakes since he took on the top job.
National were on 37% in today’s poll, up 2% on July, while ACT picked up 1% to 13%, and the Greens were up 2% to 12%.
The poll also shows a surge for New Zealand First, on 4% and within grasping distance of the crucial 5% party vote needed for a return to Parliament.
1News
Traditionally at about this point of the election cycle, the large parties start shedding support, as the minnows get better coverage. I’d expect this election to revert to the typical pattern after the aberration of 2020.
This is also where National have a vulnerability. Despite climbing in the Preferred Prime Minister stakes, Christopher Luxon is still behind a thoroughly disliked Chris Hipkins.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins was the preferred prime minister for 21% of the 1002 eligible voters polled, his worst result since taking over the Labour leadership from Dame Jacinda Ardern in January and a drop of 3% on the last poll.
Meanwhile, National leader Christopher Luxon was the preferred prime minister for 20%, steady on the same number as July.
ACT leader David Seymour was once again third in preferred prime minister ratings, with 6%, down 1% on the last poll.
Seymour was followed by NZ First leader Winston Peters (3%), Green MP Chlöe Swarbrick (2%) and National’s deputy leader Nicola Willis (2%).
Ardern was also charting – just behind Willis on 2%, as were fellow former prime ministers John Key (0.3%) and Helen Clark (0.1%).
1News
John Key maintained a popularity that often exceeded his own party vote. There is still time, but the overarching theme is that voters like National, but don’t like Luxon.
Hipkins, however, is dog tucker. The last time a sitting Prime Minister was this low and their party was under 30 per cent was Jenny Shipley when she lost to Helen Clark in 1999.
Andrew Little was also rolled by Ardern when Labour hit 24 per cent in 2017. So the political tea leaves are not reading well for Hipkins.
There is still plenty of campaigning to go. Expect this to bounce around a lot in the coming weeks.
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