Yesterday Stuff launched their YouGov poll and it clearly showed National is in trouble and friendless. The poll also showed how deeply unliked Simon Bridges is.
National can not and will not win with a leader whose net favourability score is -37 compared with Jacinda’s +35. That is a massive 72 point gap. For perspective, that gap is larger than the one between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn.
I mention the gap between Corbyn and Johnson because Andrew Sullivan comments on what those sort of numbers mean.
Britain is a parliamentary democracy; the profiles of the party leaders should not really be dispositive as they are in a presidential system. And yet since 1983, only one election has seen the less-popular individual leader win: in 2005, when Tony Blair was regarded as a foul, war-criminal sellout, and still beat the Tory Michael Howard. Every other time, regardless of the party vote share, the person with the best personal rating has won. The biggest gap before now was Blair-Major in 1997, when Blair was a young phenomenon, had a near 50-point advantage over Major, and won in a landslide. Last time, May and Corbyn were quite close in personal terms: May was -8 net unfavorable and Corbyn was -11. This time, Boris is hardly beloved, with a +1 favorable. But Corbyn’s rating is -60. That’s not a typo.
You can easily re-write that, I’ll give it a go, just so you can see how similar the situation is for New Zealand.
New Zealand is a parliamentary democracy; the profiles of the party leaders should not really be dispositive as they are in a presidential system. And yet since 1984, only one election has seen the less-popular individual leader win: in 1990 when Jim Bolger was regarded as a dour, Catholic potato farmer, and still beat the Labour party. Every other time, regardless of the party vote share, the person with the best personal rating has won. The biggest gap before now was Key-Cunliffe in 2014, when Key was still immensely popular, had a nearly 50-point advantage over Cunliffe, and won. Last time, Bill English and Jacinda Ardern weren’t even close in personal terms but National remained high despite a lacklustre leader in the form of Bill English. This time, Jacinda is still beloved, with a +35 favorable. But Bridges’s rating is -37. That’s not a typo. That is a massive 72 point gap.
Tribalism and blind loyalty won’t work, neither will trying to run a scandal driven campaign like David Cunliffe, in cahoots with Nicky Hager, tried in 2014. If National go into the next election with Simon Bridges and Paula Bennett leading then they will lose.
