Nobody could honestly say the two polls released this week reeked of bias. The first, the normally left-leaning 1News-Verian poll was good news for the right. The other, the normally right-leaning Taxpayers Union-Curia poll had better news for the left. As we all know polls do bounce around, some more than others. There are many variables contributing to this, including the time the poll was conducted, the questions asked and how they were framed. To quote the late Jim Bolger: “Bugger the polls.”
Surprising even myself, I felt the 1News poll more accurately reflected the recent political events. First, and most obvious, the Māori Party was all but obliterated. The one per cent shown was rounded up: the actual result came in at 0.6%. Hipkins will have a dry mouth when he realises that this scenario benefits Luxon rather than himself.
This poll recorded a four per cent drop for the Greens, which, I think, is fairly accurate. This party of no-hoper miscreants are, to be charitable, one rung above the Māori Party in terms of usefulness and contributions that might make this country a better place. The changing faces of their MPs represent a continuous revolving door as various members disappear; often for nefarious reasons.
They spend too much time over farting cows, nonsensically thinking that their machinations on the topic will rescue the planet from complete destruction. Chloë Swarbrick said there was not much to take from the poll which, in terms of her party’s result, is correct. The Greens need putting out to pasture in a distant paddock. They would probably make a more useful contribution in that environment than they do in parliament.
ACT recorded a two per cent bounce in this poll. This, to me, is accurate, as their achievements, listed recently by David Farrar on Kiwiblog, are many. Despite various knock backs from both National and NZ First, the ACT party has shown admirable resilience and tenacity in trying to achieve its goals. The same could be said of leader David Seymour. After a knockdown, he immediately gets back up to pursue his task of getting the left’s collective backs up.
Hipkins, possibly wanting to portray himself as the man to lead Labour into the next election, said he was pleased with his party’s result. For someone who doesn’t have much to be pleased about, that was a fairly predictable comment. He immediately started talking about National likening them, internally, to a Game of Thrones. Very clever but it’s a fake narrative made up by his friends in the media. His Game of Thrones remark can easily be topped by the fact he’s facing Mission Impossible.
NZ First is steady, which is probably a bit of a surprise as I think its popularity is somewhat higher than what the polls are showing. The horrendous situation the left are finding themselves in means that in all likelihood Winston will stay right where he is. His deputy Shane Jones, against all odds plus frogs, moths and other assorted native creatures put in his way, is doing as much as any politician in the coalition to progress activity that will improve the economic well-being of the country.
National can be pretty satisfied with its party’s result and also that of its leader. The result is probably reflective of some of the good things they are doing. It looks more and more likely that Luxon will lead National into the next election. For all the talk of Bishop and Stanford, I think Luxon is best suited to carry out the task. On the negative side this reflects poorly on the leadership material among their MPs but I think there are younger ones yet to make their mark.
Luxon is lucky to have two mainly supportive coalition partners who, for minor parties, are rating rather well themselves. This was apparent in the TU/Curia poll results when comparing National with Labour on important issues. On those where National was ahead, the gap increased markedly when ACT and NZ First numbers were added.
As I said at the start I have concentrated on the INews/ Verian poll, not because it is kinder to the right, but because it paints a more accurate picture of how things stand politically at the present time. For an end-of-year poll this one was as near to a Christmas present as the coalition might have expected. It should provide a fairly relaxing break for those on the right.
As for the left, they might have to pull a few Christmas crackers to get a smile. Those often pathetic funnies found inside they will no doubt identify with as it only takes a modicum of intelligence to get the joke. I’m not sure the Māori Party will see the funny side though as they are written in English which to them is a foreign language.
Looking ahead to 2026 election year, my money is on the re-election of the coalition.
