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NZ First is part of a global trend where ‘nationalism’ is finding popularity among right-wing voters. These voters are not ‘far right’, as the media would have you believe: they are people with pride in their country and who choose to support a party that offers a ‘country first’ approach, as Donald Trump has done in America. This is also evident in Australia, where Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is making inroads, not into just the Liberal/National coalition vote but also in parts of the traditional Labor heartland. In the UK the same is happening. Reform, led by Nigel Farage is heading the pack but with a reducing lead, because the Tories are regaining ground and Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain party entered the polls at four per cent and is now at nine per cent.
These are all parties offering policies that reflect pride in one’s country. The flying of flags is a good example. In the UK, the left decry the flying of the Union Jack or the flag of St George as racist and spoiling the look of the area. This is nothing more than pandering to minority groups whose votes they rely on. A publican was criticised for painting the flag of St George on his building. Due to criticism, he had to get council consent. His argument was it was a sports bar and sports followers support the flag. Commonsense prevailed.
Winston has always seen NZ First as a nationalist party. The trend he started has now caught on and he is benefitting accordingly. Some polls have his party in the teens and I have no doubt that his support will continue to rise and that will make things increasingly difficult for Luxon and National.
Nationalism is largely about domestic policy but can also have influence on foreign policy. The India FTA is a case in point: NZ First will not support it, fearing an excessive influx of Indians will occur. This reflects the party’s position of putting New Zealand first. Winston didn’t give the party its name without good reason.
Luxon is his own and is National’s worst enemy. There is obviously some truth to recent rumours of dissent in the caucus over Luxon’s leadership. The fact that they emanated from MPs within the party and not the media is the key; I don’t care how frustrated those MPs were, they were utter fools to go racing off to spill the beans to media organisations that are their enemy.
Obviously those MPs have no more political nous than Luxon and this is worrying in terms of what type of person might be representing National in parliament. It indicates why the poll numbers for National are not too wide of the mark. Luxon, as leader, must shoulder most of the blame. I don’t believe, though some might differ, that it his leadership which is the prime cause of the party’s problems. After all, he has held a coalition together, one which includes Winston, and for that I think he deserves some credit. The problem to me is two-fold: he listens to no one but himself and has failed to carry out promises made at the last election.
Luxon doesn’t understand the situation and Winston certainly does. He will be salivating at the prospect of further rises in popularity. At the beginning of the coalition it was reported that Luxon and Peters were dining at each other’s residences. I’m not sure if this is still the case but, if it is, Winston will be enjoying his helping of roast and vegetables more so than Christopher. If Luxon continues his current modus operandi then the future for National is bleak. Most sensible voters, especially since the introduction of MMP, do not vote out of blind loyalty for any one party.
On the right there are three choices and voters are finding the bark of Peters and Seymour more appealing than Luxon’s reluctance to bite on issues that are of concern to his base. Luxon’s ‘head in the sand’ approach is allowing his coalition partners, Winston in particular, to own the higher ground and attract those disillusioned with National. Giving this sort of advantage to someone like Winston, the canniest politician in parliament, is inviting doom.
Winston though could be the nigger in the woodpile. He lets us know from time to time that he still possesses his bag of tricks but after at the last election he knows which side his political bread is buttered on. And the more his numbers rise the more leverage he has in dealing with Luxon post-election while avoiding those pesky Greens and the insane Māori lot. Much of the noise coming from both Winston and Shane indicates that a move away from the current setup is most unlikely. He may even, with his nationalistic policies, attract some disaffected Labour voters. He has more chance of doing that than National or ACT.
It’s also starting to look more and more like Winston is heading for the chair where sits the person with the crown. The rise in Winston’s ‘preferred PM’ numbers has him just five points behind Luxon. If he could do the job as well as he handles foreign affairs then the country would indeed be better off. Who knows what the polls might throw up between now and the election but one thing is for certain, Winston and NZ First are on a roll.
