Is This Pork Barrel Politics?
It sounds less like a scientific inquiry and a lot more like a government quietly laying the tracks, funding the surveys, and preparing the ground for de facto Māori ownership of public energy resources.
NZ First
Winston Peters Is Carrying the Right on His Back.
A Freshwater Strategy deck published by the Platform shows National down 12 points since 2023 and NZ First holding the right bloc together. The numbers check out.
Quick Hit: What NZ First Says It Delivered for Superannuitants, Checked
Winston Peters read out a list in Papakura. We checked it against the official record.
Two Invoices, No Cheque: Winston Has the Only Tax Cut Worth Having
Labour says Luxon costs you $6302 a year. National says Labour will cost you $2263. Neither of them is cutting your income tax. The only party offering a business tax cut it has costed is NZ First.
Neither Chris Gets to Decide
Winston Peters says Luxon and Hipkins will not decide this election and the media is still running it like first past the post. Two more Chris-on-Chris debates are booked. The kingmaker is the story nobody is billing.
Quick Hit: Last Time It Cost Them Points
ACT’s James Christmas and Paul Henry have gone after NZ First on abortion and foreign aid with four weeks to run. ACT is down to 9.2 in Curia. The last time ACT attacked Winston, it cost them points.
Luxon Will Pick Up the Phone
Luxon has ruled out Opportunity, but he never said he wouldn’t take the call. On current polling the overhang strategy is the only way to keep Opportunity out and the coalition in.
Winston Brought the Majority
NZ First is up to 12 per cent and 16 seats and that is what puts the coalition on 65. National’s party vote still buys no list MP. Electorate vote National, party vote ACT or NZ First.
Three Polls Say Split Your Vote
Tuesday’s three polls all show the majors bleeding to the minors. Neither Chris is liked. National’s list lift is a forlorn hope. Electorate National or best candidate; party vote ACT or NZ First.
Luxon Is Finished, So Split Your Vote And Save The Coalition
National 25.9 per cent, its worst since 2020. Neither bloc gets to 61. Luxon survived two recent confidence votes and the party is paying for it. Vote National in the electorate, party vote ACT or NZ First.
If the Plan Matches National’s, the Bill Is What Labour Is Hiding
Labour kept Willis’s $2.4b allowance, hit surplus in the same year, costed one pay equity claim, and parked the rest in $10.5b of “headroom”. Luxon v Hipkins is Tuesday. Ask who signed the IOU.
Desperation Is a Stinky Cologne
Key says it will be tight getting Willis, Bishop, Goldsmith and Brownlee home. About 125,000 extra party votes for just one list MP, only if National holds 39 electorates. When the scare is Laws and Henry, panic is a confession.
Hipkins the Hypocrite
Hipkins called Harry Mowbray’s split-vote campaign an absolute rort by wealthy entrenched interests. Under MMP an overhang is a feature, not a loophole. Chippy only hates it when his mates aren’t running it. If it is absolute fraud, rule Te Pāti Māori out. He will not.
One Point In Mt Albert
Spinoff-Curia has Helen White on 33 and Melissa Lee on 32 in Mt Albert. Eighteen votes decided it in 2023. ACT and NZ First should clear the field for Lee. Every National electorate win without a list seat is another box for Willis, Bishop and Goldsmith.
Quick Hit: Willis’s Better Books Came Partly Out of Your Trolley
Treasury has the deficit at $6.8 billion and next year within $0.8 billion of surplus. It says that is partly inflation lifting the tax take while spending allowances stay fixed, which is how Willis got there with no new taxes.
Winston’s Right – Key’s Speech Was Suicidal
John Key told National voters splitting their vote was ‘the opposite of clever’. Winston Peters called it a suicidal speech. Run the numbers and Winston is the one who can count.