A headline in the Sydney Morning Herald on 27 June caught my eye: ‘Stats nerd’ Leigh in dream job on the eve of census. Newly minted Assistant Minister for Treasury Andrew Leigh was excited to release their latest census information.
What is truly amazing is that this comes a few weeks after a change of government and in the midst of an economic down turn with Covid and rising Omicron rates very much in the mix.
No excuses. They got it done, thanks to their public servants who would have been working on this during Morrison’s reign and just carried over to the new regime. That’s how governments are supposed to work: providing continuity and certainty even in the midst of a change of government.
Meanwhile back in New Zealand things don’t look so rosy.
Our ‘stats nerd’, Minister of Statistics, comes in the form of one David Clark, renowned for keeping his job after mountain biking during a Covid lockdown. And nothing much else. The talent pool is indeed shallow.
Earlier this year, in a written answer to Michael Woodhouse (regarding confirmation of the census for 2023), Clark said that they are well-positioned to deliver the census next year.
However, things are not always as they seem with this Government. An announcement does not necessarily mean delivery.
It turns out Mr Clark, whose preference is to hold the census, is, surprise surprise, referencing Omicron as a reason he may (albeit with heavy heart) have to cancel it. He says:
I have discussed the census timeframe with Stats NZ in light of constraints caused by the current Omicron outbreak.
This despite the deputy government statistician saying they have “carefully planned mitigations and controls, to deliver the census between February and April next year”. Which of course refers to mitigating the effects of Covid on delivery.
This is pure incompetence and laziness by a minister not prepared to do the hard work and instead, through his actions, instilling a ‘can’t do’ attitude in his staff .
Rather than, in recent months, building extra capacity and confidence in his staff in preparation for the census next year, inept Clark has been finding ways of wriggling out of another massive embarrassment like 2018. James Shaw made a pig’s ear of the census, preferring to spend the census week in the Islands with the PM, then sneered and laughed about its failure in the House under questioning.
Former Stats NZ chief executive Liz MacPherson resigned over the 2018 census debacle.
Rinse and repeat.
With public servants coming out of this Government’s ears – 14,000 new public servants have been appointed since 2017 – the Ministry of Statistics has not been able (unlike its counterparts in Australia, under more duress) to get this done, despite the fact they have not lost a cent in their salaries over Covid. What have they been doing? Working from home with too many coffee breaks, shopping expeditions and luncheon dates?
National’s statistics spokesperson, Michael Woodhouse, who has fruitlessly been trying to get a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ answer regarding the 2023 census out of Clark in the House and Select Committee, has made the prediction that Clark is on the verge of cancelling the census.
“I’m confident the government will announce a delay of the next census till 2024,” the Dunedin MP tells Newsroom. Woodhouse says his sources – which have got to be from high-up within Stats NZ or Clark’s office –state the minister has asked for a Cabinet paper to be prepared listing the options for a delay.
“I just don’t think they’re going to risk the embarrassment of a similar debacle, as they oversaw in 2018, six months out from the next election”, Woodhouse says. “I expect that announcement will be made around July or August.”
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/next-years-census-will-be-delayed-national-mp-picks
Woodhouse does not have to be a crystal ball gazer to reach this conclusion: ‘listing the options for delay’ is the key indicator.
Planning to fail, in other words.
The census is hugely important. Capturing the demographics of our population every five years is influential in policy planning, building infrastructure and improving public services; in particular, correct data for Maori and Pasifika and vulnerable groups such as disabled and blind people is crucial. Without reliable data, equity gaps can’t be understood.
This assists spending. Something this Government does with consummate ease, with virtually no results thus far.
To compound his argument and muddy the waters to delay the census, Clark has been preparing a bill as a distraction. The Data and Statistics Bill had its first reading in parliament last November, and is being considered by the Governance and Administration Select Committee.
These changes will have the effect of lessening our most ‘open and transparent’ Government’s accountability, increasing their power and taking away the people’s power.
The bill proposes, amongst other changes, to delegate some statistics between other agencies, taking away the power from senior officials like the Chief Statistician and the Ombudsman; making it more difficult for media, opposition politicians and ordinary citizens to gain official information.
There is opposition to this bill for a range of reasons across the board; it is feared it could also compromise data security and, with all the data leaks from this Government since 2017, we should be very concerned.
Still, it is providing a great smoke screen for David Clark as he wriggles his way out of implementing the 2023 census. Shame on him.
The MSM has largely ignored this and other issues such as co-governance discussion, Mahuta’s nepotism and the irregular employment by Kelvin Davis of the dodgy Matthew Tukaki, thereby protecting the Government from scrutiny.