Summarised by Centrist
National has surged to 32% in the latest 1News-Verian poll, opening a five-point lead over Labour, but the possibility of a National overhang could dramatically alter the parliamentary arithmetic and potentially eliminate the need for the Opportunity Party to form a government.
While published seat projections position Qiulae Wong's Opportunity Party as kingmaker, they do not account for National retaining more electorate seats than its party vote would ordinarily entitle it to.
The latest 1News-Verian poll puts National up four points to 32%, Labour down one to 27%, the Greens at 16%, ACT at 11%, NZ First at 8% and Opportunity at 7%.
On those figures, National would receive 38 seats, ACT 13 and NZ First nine, giving the current coalition 60 seats.
Verian's projection assumes Te Pāti Māori retains four electorates and the Te Tai Tokerau Party wins one, producing a 124-seat Parliament requiring 63 seats for a majority.
Labour, the Greens and the two Māori parties would collectively hold 56 seats, rising to 64 with Opportunity's eight MPs.
However, the calculations could change substantially if National creates its own overhang.
According to the Electoral Commission's official results, National won 43 electorate seats in the 2023 general election, later adding Port Waikato in a by-election.
If National were to win 43 electorates again, while its party vote entitled it to only 38 seats, it would generate a five-seat overhang.
Assuming all other projected results remained unchanged, Parliament would expand to 129 seats, with National, ACT and NZ First collectively holding 65. This is exactly the number required for a majority without Opportunity.
The possibility is important because National leader Christopher Luxon and NZ First leader Winston Peters have ruled out working with Opportunity, while ACT leader David Seymour has expressed willingness to negotiate.
Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong has indicated she would approach National first if it emerged as the largest party.
The poll surveyed 1003 eligible voters between 15 and 19 October, with a maximum margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
Re-published from the Centrist with permission
