Summarised by Centrist
Te Pāti Māori is considering an election tactic that could affect the balance of Parliament even if its nationwide party vote remains very small: not submitting a party list at all.
The party has already signalled that its campaign will focus heavily on winning the candidate vote in the seven Māori electorates. Its broader overhang strategy has been well canvassed, but Newsroom senior political reporter Marc Daalder says the decision over whether to submit a list could be just as important.
If Te Pāti Māori submits a list, wins several electorates and receives only 1% or 2% of the party vote, those electorate victories can create an overhang and expand Parliament beyond its normal 120 MPs.
But if the party does not submit a list, there is no overhang.
Instead, any Te Pāti Māori electorate MPs would occupy seats within the fixed 120-member Parliament, while the remaining seats would be divided among parties according to the party vote.
Daalder gives the example of Te Pāti Māori winning four electorates without submitting a list. Those four MPs would take four of the 120 seats, leaving the remaining 116 seats to be allocated among the other parties.
“You end up with a Parliament of 120 seats, four of them are Te Pāti Māori MPs, and everyone else’s share of the pie through the party vote is distributed among the remaining 116 seats,” he said.
Daalder said that outcome would actually be “more disproportionate” than an overhang.
The choice could also affect who forms the next government.
The latest 1News-Verian poll found that whether Te Pāti Māori submitted a list changed the governing maths. Under one scenario, Labour could govern with the Greens and Opportunity without Te Pāti Māori. Under the no-list scenario, Labour would also need Te Pāti Māori’s support.
“It was the difference between Labour being able to govern without Te Pāti Māori and just with the Greens and Opportunity versus if they didn’t submit a list, then they needed Te Pāti Māori’s votes as well,” Daalder said.
Co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer has not committed either way.
“We’re focused on the candidate vote now, we haven’t made a decision on that,” she told Daalder.
Editor’s note: In Daalder’s example, the no-list strategy has the effect of reducing Labour, the Greens and Opportunity from 62 seats to 60. With a Te Pāti Māori list, those parties could form a majority without it.
Without a list, they would need Te Pāti Māori’s support. In that scenario, the tactic effectively produces a two-seat swing in the coalition arithmetic, despite Te Pāti Māori still having the same four electorate MPs. The exact effect would depend on the final election results.
Re-published from the Centrist with permission
