The Gaza Plan: Promise, Pitfalls and the Path Forward

Greg Bouwer
IINZ

The release of US President Donald Trump’s 21-point plan for Gaza has given the world its first serious blueprint to end the Israel-Hamas War and shape the Strip’s future. Unlike the vague calls for ceasefires issued by the United Nations and various governments, the Trump plan is both structured and ambitious: it acknowledges Israel’s battlefield gains, addresses Hamas’s removal, and proposes a transitional framework for governance, reconstruction, and eventual Palestinian self-administration.

What the Plan Proposes

At its core, the plan is a sequenced roadmap with immediate, medium-term, and long-term measures:

Immediate steps:
- An immediate end to the war and the unconditional release of all Israeli hostages.
- In return, Israel would release thousands of Palestinian prisoners, including 100–200 with “blood on their hands”.
- A freeze of battle lines in place to prevent further territorial changes.
- Israeli assurances not to attack Qatar, acknowledging its role as a mediator.
Medium-term measures:
- Creation of a Gaza International Transitional Authority (GITA) comprising Arab and international actors.
- Deployment of an Arab security force tasked with disarming Hamas and providing order. Fighters willing to lay down arms may be offered safe passage out of Gaza.
- Unrestricted aid flows through the UN and other international agencies.
- A five-year reconstruction programme to restore infrastructure and housing, coordinated by international and Arab donors.
Long-term vision:
- Eventual handover of Gaza’s administration to the Palestinian Authority (PA).
- A resumption of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations with guarantees that Israel will not apply sovereignty to Judea and Samaria (the so-called “West Bank”) during the transitional period.
- Partial implementation of the plan in areas already under Israeli control, even if Hamas refuses to accept it wholesale.

Why It Matters

The Trump plan is the first framework that openly sidelines Hamas as a negotiating partner. Unlike past ceasefire initiatives conditioned on Hamas’s approval, this plan shifts the centre of gravity to Israel, Arab states, and the wider international community. As analyst Dalia Ziada observes, this allows for the voices of non-Hamas Gazans to be represented accurately for the first time.

Furthermore, the plan recognises hard realities:

Hamas cannot be allowed to rule Gaza again.
The PA cannot simply be parachuted back in after nearly two decades of absence and dysfunction.
Only a transitional authority with international and Arab participation can hope to fill the vacuum without collapsing into renewed chaos.

Strengths of the Plan

Realism about Hamas: The plan rightly identifies that Hamas’s eradication is non-negotiable. The international community’s past obsession with “all parties” engagement has only prolonged Hamas’s survival.
International buy-in: By anchoring the plan in US diplomacy and Arab state participation, Trump has offered the first plausible formula for burden-sharing in Gaza.
Structured reconstruction: The five-year timeline provides benchmarks for rebuilding schools, hospitals, and utilities – essential to prevent Gaza from remaining a perpetual ruin.
Tactical flexibility: Allowing partial implementation in “terror-free zones” under Israeli control avoids the all-or-nothing trap that doomed earlier proposals.

Pitfalls and Risks

Yet, serious flaws could undermine the plan’s viability:

Prisoner releases: The proposed release of terrorists with “blood on their hands” will be politically explosive in Israel, raising profound justice and security concerns.
Security vagueness: While an Arab force is envisaged, the command structure, mandate, and enforcement mechanisms are undefined. Without clear guarantees, Israel will be expected to shoulder the security burden indefinitely.
Return of the PA: Even in a limited form, reinserting the Palestinian Authority risks reigniting the very factional rivalry that triggered Gaza’s 2007 civil war. The PA remains corrupt, violent, and lacking legitimacy. Crucially, its education system glorifies the murder of Jews and teaches Palestinian children that the entire land of Israel belongs to them. So long as Palestinian textbooks and official media preach hatred, martyrdom and territorial maximalism, no transitional arrangement can mature into genuine peace.

Reform of the PA’s institutions (especially its school curriculum) is therefore indispensable. A PA that indoctrinates its youth with antisemitism cannot be trusted to cultivate a culture of coexistence. If the PA is to play any role in Gaza’s future, it must first be required to dismantle its infrastructure of incitement and demonstrate that it can prepare the next generation for peace rather than perpetual war.

Linkage to Judea and Samaria: Conditioning Israel’s freedom of action in Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) on progress in Gaza risks entangling two arenas that require distinct solutions.
Dependence on international resolve: Reconstruction and governance will only succeed if Arab states and the West sustain funding and political will over many years – a tall order given regional fatigue and global distractions.

A Way Forward

Despite its shortcomings, Trump’s 21-point plan represents a more coherent attempt than anything offered by the UN, EU, or Arab League. It acknowledges that Israel’s military campaign, not diplomatic resolutions, has broken Hamas’s grip, and it tries to turn battlefield realities into a political structure for the ‘day after’.

For New Zealand policymakers and the wider Western community, the plan poses a key question: will the world finally step up to help build a Gaza free of Hamas, or will it continue indulging the fantasy that ceasefires and international condemnations are substitutes for hard governance?

Trump’s plan should not be accepted uncritically. It requires amendments – particularly on prisoner releases, security guarantees, and the PA’s role. But it is a foundation on which serious discussion can at last be built.

Summary of the 21-Point Plan

Below is a condensed paraphrase of the 21 points (as given in the article) and key features:

Gaza as a de-radicalized, terror-free zone
Redevelopment of Gaza for the benefit of its people
If Israel and Hamas agree, war ends immediately: IDF halts operations and withdraws
Within 48 hours of Israel’s public acceptance, all hostages returned (living and deceased)
After return of hostages: Israel frees life-sentence Palestinian prisoners, Gazans arrested during war, and returns bodies
Hamas members who commit to peaceful coexistence granted amnesty; those who choose may leave via safe passage
Large influx of aid under benchmarks (e.g., 600 trucks/day) plus rehabilitation and rubble removal
Aid distribution without interference by either side: via UN, Red Crescent, or international organizations
Temporary transitional government in Gaza of Palestinian technocrats, supervised by a new international body
Economic plan with experts to rebuild Gaza, attract investment, create jobs
Creation of an economic zone with reduced tariffs, negotiated access
No forced displacement; encouragement to remain; those who leave may return
Hamas entirely out of governance; dismantle military and tunnel infrastructure; new leadership commits to peaceful coexistence
Security guarantees by regional partners to ensure compliance
International stabilization force to deploy immediately; train a Palestinian police force
Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza; gradual territorial handover to the new security forces
If Hamas refuses or delays, then implementation proceeds in “terror-free areas” first
Israel agrees not to strike Qatar; US and others acknowledge Doha’s mediation role
Process to de-radicalize population, including interfaith dialogue
Once redevelopment is advanced and Palestinian Authority has reformed, conditions for pathway to statehood
US will establish Israeli-Palestinian dialogue to agree on a “political horizon” for peaceful coexistence