The Good Oil Political Intelligence – Weekly Round Up: 6 April–11 April 2026

📰 THE WEEK THAT WAS

Monday 6 April

• New TPU/Curia poll drops – NZ First surges: The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll showed NZ First rocketing up 3.9 points to 13.6%, the party’s strongest result this parliamentary term. National clawed back slightly, up 1.4 to 29.8%, but remains stubbornly below 30%. Labour slipped one point to 33.4%. The Greens took a hammering, down 2.7 to 7.8%. The headline? On these numbers, the three coalition parties would command 65 seats – a working majority. The opposition bloc falls to 55. Winston Peters climbed to 12.1% as preferred PM, breathing down the necks of both Luxon (20.5%) and Hipkins (21.7%).
• Greyhound racing ban takes effect: With the greyhound racing ban bill having passed parliament late last week with cross-party support, the industry is now on a four-month countdown. Racing ends 1 August 2026. Critics are calling it a “ban without a plan” – no adequate transition arrangements for the dogs or people involved.

Tuesday 7 April

• New ministers sworn in: The reshuffled cabinet was formally sworn in following last week’s reshuffle. Chris Penk takes Defence, the spy agencies and Space. Penny Simmonds promoted. Cameron Brewer and Mike Butterick enter the Executive. Paul Goldsmith picks up Public Service and Pacific Peoples.
• Peters meets Rubio in Washington: Winston Peters sat down with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the State Department. They discussed bilateral relations, the Iran war’s impact on NZ fuel supply, Pacific security and critical minerals. Peters pressed Rubio on the fuel crisis and asked about US tanker support for the Pacific. He was characteristically tight-lipped afterwards: “We’re keeping our counsel.”
• Luxon: “Global order is floundering”: The PM used his post-cabinet presser to acknowledge the deepening geopolitical crisis, with Iran war escalation, rising fertiliser prices and disrupted supply chains all hitting New Zealand.

Wednesday 8 April

• RBNZ holds OCR at 2.25%: No surprises from the Reserve Bank, which held the Official Cash Rate steady. The Monetary Policy Committee cited “countervailing forces” – the domestic economy needs stimulus, but oil-driven inflation pressure from the Iran war makes cutting risky. Next review: 27 May.
• Iran ceasefire breakthrough: In a dramatic overnight development, Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran following last-minute diplomacy by Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif. Iran agreed to immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Markets rallied, but the ceasefire remains fragile and global fuel markets are treating it cautiously.
• Air NZ fuel bill doubles: Air New Zealand revealed its daily fuel bill has more than doubled – from NZ$4 million/day to $8.5 million/day – as oil prices surged above US$200/barrel. The airline uses roughly 22,000 barrels daily. Expect fare increases.

Thursday 9 April

• India FTA scrutiny intensifies: Labour escalated its criticism of the government’s India Free Trade Agreement, questioning the timeline and suggesting NZ is being pressured into a deal that’s not ready. Trade ministers appear not to be “in lockstep”. This will run and run.
• Parody and satire bill opens for submissions: The Copyright (Parody and Satire) Amendment Bill, debated in the House last week, is now open for public submissions. The bill would align NZ copyright law with Australia by explicitly protecting parody and satire – timely, given the current political climate.
• Alcohol regulation bill at select committee: The Sale and Supply of Alcohol (Improving Alcohol Regulation) Amendment Bill, which passed its first reading on 2 April, is now before the Justice Select Committee and open for submissions.

Friday 10 April

• Coordinated media hit pieces on fuel response: Two stories landed on the same day – one from the Spinoff, one from the Post – both attacking the coalition’s fuel crisis management. Looks coordinated. The government’s response has been measured and responsible given the circumstances, but that doesn’t fit the opposition media narrative.
• Bishop “demotion” analysis continues: A week on from the reshuffle, Chris Bishop’s loss of Leader of the House and campaign chair roles continues to dominate the political commentary class. Simeon Brown is the new campaign chair. The real question: is Luxon shoring up his position, or creating an enemy?

📊 POLL OF POLLS

The Good Oil Political Intelligence – Poll of Polls

Weighted average of five polls (6 March–7 April 2026)

Coalition Blocs:

🔵 Government (Nat+ACT+NZF): 49.7%

🔴 Opposition (Lab+Grn+TPM): 46.5%

Key takeaway: The latest TPU/Curia poll (1–2 April) showed NZ First surging to 13.6% – their best result this term. The government bloc holds a working majority on current numbers (65 seats to 55), but it’s NZ First doing the heavy lifting. National must break back above 30% or risk losing seats to their own coalition partner. Winston Peters continues to climb as preferred PM – the “Peters for PM” narrative isn’t going away.

🏛️ PARLIAMENT NEXT WEEK

Sitting Days: Parliament in recess (Easter break)

Parliament rose for Easter recess and is not expected to sit the week of 13–17 April.

Bills to watch when they return:

• Copyright (Parody and Satire) Amendment Bill – at select committee, submissions open
• Sale and Supply of Alcohol (Improving Alcohol Regulation) Amendment Bill – at Justice Select Committee, submissions open
• Employment Leave Bill – submissions closing 14 April
• Life Jackets Bill – submissions period underway
• Ngāti Ruapani mai Waikaremoana Claims Settlement Bill –submissions closed 10 April

Select Committees:

• Justice Committee – Alcohol regulation submissions
• Economic Development – India FTA scrutiny expected to continue

💡 WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

• Iran ceasefire countdown: Two weeks. That’s all we’ve got. If the ceasefire collapses, the Strait of Hormuz closes again, and NZ’s ~33 days of petrol reserves become the only story in town. The government is quietly preparing contingency plans and meeting with major businesses. This is the single biggest risk to the economy – and the election.
• NZ First’s trajectory: Winston Peters is having the political run of his life. NZ First at 13.6%, preferred PM climbing, Washington meetings with Rubio – he’s positioning himself as the indispensable man of NZ politics. The question every political commentator is now asking: could Peters actually become PM? Watch this space.
• Bishop vs Luxon subplot: The reshuffle stripped Chris Bishop of Leader of the House and campaign chair. He got Attorney-General as a consolation prize. The commentariat smells blood. Is this leadership management or the beginning of a factional fight inside National? Either way, it’s a distraction the party cannot afford seven months from an election.

📌 FROM THE GOOD OIL THIS WEEK

• TPU/Curia Poll Says It All – JC breaks down why the numbers should terrify National
• How Winston Peters Becoming Prime Minister Could Happen – The scenario that’s no longer a fantasy
• Winston Peters On His Meeting With US Secretary Of State Marco Rubio – Video coverage of the Washington visit
• “Serious Breach” but No Consequences: The Activist Judge Who Got Away With It – When the Northern Club has more backbone than the judiciary
• The Elite Cancel Mob Come for BRS – Convicted before the trial starts
• Shubz On The Battle Of Free Speech In New Zealand – Video: the free speech fight continues

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