I have been pondering awhile on the Government’s approach to Wuflu, and have concluded that it really boils down to 2 factors; ideology and planning.
In the early days of the outbreak, no one really knew what was going on and how bad the virus was (or wasn’t). This was compounded by grossly incompetent modelling, very bad advice from a very narrow select group of “experts” and poor testing and reporting of statistics. One example of the latter was someone who died in a car crash and had Wuflu being categorised as a Wuflu death.
Ideology has been the driving force behind the government’s actions. I first noticed how much this was playing a part in the definition of the “Alert Levels.” It has continued most recently into the SANZAAR mess. The ideology hasn’t been limited to just the ministers currently in charge, but also extends to most of the bureaucrats and civil servants making the smaller decisions and implementing the government’s orders (desires).
The ideology has added an extra dimension of complexity and confusion, with no tangible benefits to the country. Take a look at the alert levels for example. Instead of developing and implementing sets of rules for different alert levels, and letting people and business get on with it, we got poorly defined definitions like “essential services”, placed on top of the rules.
It’s in these extra constraints where the ideology exists. Supermarkets and dairies can open under level 4 but butchers and greengrocers can’t. This approach can only be put down to blind ideology and the lack of ability to see the bigger picture in a common-sense manner. It has also driven the lack of flexibility and willingness to improve upon initial plans and approaches; like with the SANZAAR mess.
Initially, 15 people could train together, which was then increased to 25. Why not the whole team? Why keep following the same approach to quarantine (which was then slightly modified), for these teams? I don’t buy the medical reasons behind it, especially given everything that has now been learned about Wuflu. Australia can be flexible, why not New Zealand? The answer is ideology.
The SANZAAR mess brings me to the next big factor in the government’s approach, planning. It has been reported that local and private organisations put in place plans to allow the teams to train and quarantine at the same time, but these plans didn’t sit well with the powers that be. This example highlights how poor the government’s planning is.
There is a skill to planning and it’s not a hard skill to learn and master. The British Army teaches its Ruperts (Officers) something called a “combat estimate”. Basically, this is a methodology of a thought process for planning an attack (which needs to be done before orders can be issued) but can be used in nearly any situation. I still use it for planning almost everything from road trips to budgeting my bills for the next month.
The methodology consists of 2 basic stages, Analysis of the objective, and factors, with “so what” questions being asked for each observation or question. The questions allow for a consideration or deduction to be identified which will lead to a task or constraint to be applied to the plan. By the end of this process you will have a good outline of a plan and the variations that may be required as things become clearer or progress.
This process also allows for the initial objective to be re-considered and amended. The government has had a lot of time to fine-tune and re-develop its plans. This was especially the case during the first lockdown. Either due to ideology affecting the objective or just simple laziness with the planning and coordination (think back to the illegal first 9 days of the first lockdown), the government created a mess on a single road leading to a badly thought-out objective, through its inability to properly plan.
So coming back to another lesson taught in the army, “Proper Planning and Preparation Prevents a Piss Poor Performance”. Wuflu hasn’t caused the situation New Zealand now finds itself in, this is solely on the Government’s head. The politicisation of bureaucrats and the civil service hasn’t helped New Zealand. The unwillingness to be flexible, the refusal to consider other options and objectives, the lack of proper modification to plans as the situation evolved resulted in the economic car crash for a country that could have easily handled the Wuflu situation with proper planning.
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