There have been two polls recently, one from 1News/Kantar and the other from Roy Morgan, both of which show clearly that it isn’t true that you can roll a turd in sprinkles and fool everyone that it’s something delicious.
Both polls show Labour sliding and National gaining, but the 1News Kantar poll clearly shows that no amount of sprinkles can cover for the dramatic fall of the public’s confidence in Jacinda Ardern.
The stratospheric highs in the Preferred Prime Minister stakes are history and that there is a definite slide on for the tyrant:
The Net Approval ratings have popped the tyrant’s balloon. She came second behind Christopher Luxon:
Those polled were asked if they approved or disapproved of the way Ardern was handling her job as Prime Minister.
Fifty-two per cent approved, 37% disapproved and 11% did not know or refused to answer, giving her an approval rating of +15.
She was on +55 in October 2020, +51 for September 2020, +76 for May 2020 and +33 for October 2019.
Those are dramatic movements, and not in a good way.
Luxon scored higher:
Those polled were asked if they approved or disapproved of the way Luxon was handling his job as National leader.
Forty-two per cent approved, 20% disapproved and 37% did not know or refused to answer. It gave Luxon an approval rating of +22.
This is the first time the tyrant has come off second best in the polls. Her air of invincibility has shown distinct failings. If she were having a crisis of confidence before this poll, her nervous disposition will really be causing her anxiety problems.
Then Roy Morgan dropped a bombshell poll that showed National and Act could form a Government ahead of the ragtag losers that Labour lead.
Now 50% of New Zealand electors, up 6% points since November, support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition government – its highest level of support since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to power in October 2017.
But where the hurt really comes in is when you look at the trends from all polling.
Labour is trending downward at a steep incline, and National is trending upwards. The gloss and the sprinkles have really worn off Labour, leaving voters with the unedifying view of a smelly turd to look at. At the same time National has climbed into the danger zone, causing serious concerns inside Labour.
This is where Labour’s problems begin and end. The trend is the friend of National and the enemy of Labour. Labour is a one-trick pony, and the pony has gone lame. When Ardern fails, Labour fails.
A couple more polls like that and they won’t just be missing jumps. The horse won’t even be on the race track, having thrown its rider two furlongs back. When you build a cult and the cult leader dies, so does the cult. National under John Key found that. Labour is going the same way.
It is early days, but with polls, the trend is your friend…unless you are Labour.
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