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In 1961, Adam Wade in America and Tommy Steele in the UK both had hits with the song “The Writing on the Wall”. Sixty-five years later, those words should be ringing in Christopher Luxon’s ears but I don’t think they will. No leader likes the idea of losing the crown, particularly one with the self-belief that Luxon apparently holds. He has some similarities with disastrous UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in terms of low poll ratings and a reluctance to do the obvious and resign as leader. We have now had too many polls saying much the same thing – showing that Luxon as leader of the party is not a winner with the public.
You can’t tell me that, with a 16 per cent rating, there is not a degree of unrest within the party caucus. I don’t believe with Luxon as leader the fortunes of the party will improve. For that to happen, Luxon would have to start listening to advice beyond what is in his head and start implementing legislation on the policies he campaigned on prior to the last election. Anything less and nothing will change. Luxon and Starmer have shown a stubborn streak that spells trouble both for them and their parties.
Before going further, it is worth commenting on the 1News Verian poll. It likely has Labour and the Greens too high and NZ First and ACT too low. On the figures produced, it is out of step with other recent polls. The bias that TV One shows on a nightly basis at six o’clock is reflected in this poll. A coincidence? I think not. I would like to know what input, if any, One News has with the polling company as to how the poll is structured and how the questions are framed. The poll assumes the Māori Party will retain its six seats – that is very unlikely.
Talking to toxic ‘then’ Tova on TV One’s indigestible Breakfast show, Luxon said he doesn’t get bounced around by the polls. To me that is a negative, not a positive. Maybe if he did get bounced around a bit, the numbers might go up rather than permanently sitting at 30 per cent or below. Luxon said “we need to do more, we need to do better, we’re not where we want to be”. He’s correct, but he’s refusing to address the real reasons why. He has put himself, and his party, out of step with the public by refusing to do what they want. That is not an election-winning strategy.
If Luxon were removed, the obvious question is who the replacement would be. A follow-up question would be is that the person likely to get National out of its rut. Unfortunately, I think, there is no real standout and no one who leads you to believe they are the successor. I would instantly rule out Willis and Bishop as they are largely responsible for National’s wokeness and that is a definite negative. That leaves the likes of Mark Mitchell, Erica Stanford or Simeon Brown. Chris Penk could be a dark horse. I’m simply throwing these names around to spark conversation on the subject.
In my view Erica and Simeon have their hands full with education and health and I wouldn’t like to see either step away from those portfolios. That leaves both Mitchell and Penk. I think both might struggle when it comes to charisma, which appears a necessary attribute in today’s political environment and is no doubt a contributing factor in Luxon’s woes. If the party does go for a ‘what have we got to lose’ prospect, then how about James Meager. He’s relatively young at around 40, gave an introductory speech that received a standing ovation from both sides of the House, is personable, a Māori, a South Island MP, talks sense and is a party up-and-comer. Many were surprised he was overlooked for a position around the cabinet table in the recent reshuffle. Was he seen as a threat?
Finding the right replacement for Luxon is the key to National’s future. Whoever it is, surely can’t do worse than 16 per cent. The qualifications are to be relatable to the public, implement policies the public want, implement strategies that are designed to win an election and be capable of holding a coalition together. Perhaps the person most likely to tick most, if not all, of those boxes is Mark Mitchell. He is a pretty down-to-earth character – the type you might like to have a beer with down at the pub.
If the job were open to everyone in the coalition my pick would be Winston. Experience is what is needed in these volatile and uncertain times and as Winston says, “This isn’t my first rodeo.” A number of NZ First policies have appeal to those on the right. A dose of nationalism would assist in the aim of a ‘one country’ premise that the majority of people support and this is a foundation plank of the NZ First Party. After the tearing apart of the country during Ardern’s tyrannical reign, we are sorely in need of a government that promotes patriotism as one of its core values and important for the country’s overall health and vitality.
There are just over six months to the election, which brings another hit song to mind – “It’s Now Or Never”. I think that’s exactly the point National has now reached. Changing a leader close to an election rarely works. It did with Ardern, but I don’t think National has anyone as clueless as she was or with the same narcissistic charisma.
The next few weeks will be interesting. Whatever the party decides, the decision that counts will be the one voters make at the ballot box on 7 November. The coalition must be re-elected back to power. With that in mind, National’s next move will be crucial in determining whether that outcome is assured.
