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So Winston is, once again, back to his old tricks of playing the joker in the pack, the wild card if you like. Winston is a bright cookie (and probably the best foreign minister this country has ever had) but has a mischievous streak and that engaging smile he so often beguiles us with. According to the Centrist, he will only not go with Labour if Hipkins is leader, because Hipkins lied to him. This is the Winston we are most familiar with. I would remind the elderly gentleman that a leopard doesn’t change its spots.
Winston is playing a dangerous game: dangerous to the survival of the coalition, to his deputy Shane Jones, who has made it obvious he won’t have a bar of the Greens or the Māori Party and, most of all, dangerous to himself and his party. The danger is a loss of voter support. I would have thought it not good strategy to come out with a statement of this sort when your poll numbers are at pretty much an all-time high and continuing to climb. He is doing himself no favours, in my opinion.
The old saying ‘once bitten, twice shy’ comes into play. Voters remember what some would term a betrayal in 2017 that resulted in NZ First being booted from parliament in 2020. It also resulted in the worst three years of government in living memory. Winston must shoulder some responsibility for the farcical years of the Ardern Government.
Winston going back and forth is not helpful to the long-term stability of the country. He might like to think he holds the key to the political direction the country takes but he doesn’t; the voters do, hence he was given the ‘bums rush’ in 2020. Some people learn a lesson from a misjudgement and some don’t. This carry-on is not a pathway to a winning position – he risks quite the opposite.
I am aware the party is still very much Winston and due to his advancing years, one can safely assume will be the cowboy’s last rodeo. The next leader is obviously Shane Jones. Which brings me to why I don’t believe his statements on the matter of maybe going with Labour. Winston would no more get along with Labour’s partners than Shane Jones would. Labour would no doubt be pleased to have him, as was the case with Ardern, but he would once again be the junior player.
In Labour’s books he would be preferable to the Māori Party but in decision making the views of the Greens would take precedence. This means a greater emphasis on climate change, no drilling, no mining – everything Shane has spent the last three years railing against. There would also be an economy run along the lines neither Winston nor Shane would agree with. That is before the fact that going with Labour would make it that much harder for Shane to return the party to parliament at the 2029 election.
Winston is doing himself no favours by playing silly games. He needs to take a leaf out of Nigel Farage’s and Pauline Hanson’s books. With Reform and One Nation, you know what you are getting. That is why they are rising faster in the popularity stakes than Winston. Casting doubt in voters’ minds as to which way you might jump post-election is not a vote winning strategy.
As happened in 2020, he risks getting his party kicked out of parliament.
