This is edition 2025/214 of the Ten@10 newsletter.
Hi all,
This is the Ten@10, where I collate and summarise ten news items you generally won't see in the mainstream media.
Enjoy!
1. Will Christopher Luxon lead the Government into the 2026 election?
Bryce Edwards
- 📉 Precarious Leadership: Christopher Luxon's leadership of the National Party is increasingly under threat as the 2026 election approaches, with polls showing deeply negative ratings and declining popularity.
- 📊 Polling Troubles: Luxon's net favorability is between -10 and -24, and almost half of voters believe National should replace him. The party has also been trailing Labour in most recent polls.
- 💼 Economic Concerns: Trust in National to manage the economy has fallen, with voters now trusting Labour more. The government’s performance rating is a low 3.9/10.
- 🧐 Internal Criticism: National MPs are openly debating Luxon’s future, with names like Chris Bishop emerging as a possible replacement. Critics argue Luxon lacks political instinct and depth.
- ⚖️ Risk of Leadership Change: A leadership change is risky, as it could destabilize the government and alienate coalition partners. The dilemma is whether to stick with Luxon or risk a change that could backfire.
- ⏳ Timing of Change: There’s growing pressure for National to decide quickly—before Christmas—to allow a new leader time to establish themselves before the election.
- 🏛️ Potential Replacements: Chris Bishop, Nicola Willis, Erica Stanford, and Louise Upston are the leading alternatives, though each has pros and cons, such as ethical concerns, political dynamics, or baggage.
- 🔮 Uncertain Future: Despite mounting evidence of Luxon’s poor leadership, National is hesitant to make a change due to the risks involved. MPs may opt to go into the 2026 election with Luxon simply because they can't agree on a better option.
