Summarised by Centrist
A new 1News-Verian poll says the current coalition would be out of power if an election were held today, but the projected result depends heavily on assumptions about Te Pāti Māori electorate seats and TOP falling just short of the 5% threshold.
Labour remains the highest polling party on 32%, despite dropping five points, while National is on 29%, down one point.
The Greens rose to 13%, New Zealand First to 11%, ACT fell to 6%, and Te Pāti Māori remained on 2%.
The Opportunity Party recorded the surprise result, rising to 4.6%, just below the 5% threshold required to enter Parliament without an electorate seat.
On 1News’ seat calculation, Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would have 64 seats, compared with 60 for National, NZ First and ACT.
But that projection assumes Te Pāti Māori wins six electorates, as it did in 2023. Critics say that assumption may be less secure after recent internal splits and changes around the party.
The result also depends on TOP remaining outside Parliament. If TOP crosses 5%, it could alter the seat distribution and complicate the path to government for both blocs.
Luxon remained ahead of Chris Hipkins as preferred prime minister, rising to 18%, while Hipkins fell to 16%.
The poll contrasts with the latest NZ Herald-Motu Research poll of polls, which gave the current coalition a 74.3% chance of being re-elected before this 1News-Verian result was included.
Read more over at X and The NZ Herald
