Both 1News/Kantar and Newshub/Reid Research have released polls yesterday. Predictably they show a small rise in Labour’s fortunes, just a week after Chris Hipkins took over. But will these polls just be a dead cat bounce?
He’s been prime minister less than a week, and so far, it seems New Zealanders are willing to give Chris Hipkins a go.
That’s according to the latest 1News Kantar Public Poll, which shows Hipkins, sworn in on January 25, has attracted a net approval rating of 36 points, while Christopher Luxon trails on nine points.
The poll has also shown a surge of support for Labour, with the party gaining five percentage points on its last poll result. It now sits at 38%, which translates to 49 seats if Rawiri Waititi holds Waiariki. That is Labour’s best result since January 2022.
It’s still not enough to govern alone, however, and Hipkins and Luxon were neck-and-neck on preferred prime minister stakes, with Hipkins on 23% and Luxon on 22%. The poll was run from January 25 to 29 and surveyed 1008 eligible voters.
National is at 37%, down one percentage point.
The Act party is down one point at 10%, the Greens on 7%, down two points, New Zealand First on 2%, down two, and Te Pati Maori on 1%, down one.
Translating to seats in parliament, centre-right parties would have 60 seats, while centre-left parties would have 58.
Presuming Rawiri Waititi holds the Waiariki electorate, Te Pati Maori would have two seats.
1News
Jessica Mutch-McKay was quick to pronounce that this poll means Labour are back in the game, making rather heroic assumptions along the way. This is the first poll of the year. Hipkins has barely been involved in anything and it shows just how stupid voters are to give Labour a bump when all they’ve done is swap out one smiling tyrant for another.
Newshub was just as heroic:
Labour has leapfrogged National in the latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll, showing new leader Chris Hipkins is a game-changer.
It’s a huge turnaround for a party that was previously trending downwards in support – Hipkins has proven to be Labour’s saviour.
But converting the left and right blocs’ support into seats in the House shows how tight the race remains.
Labour has risen to 38 percent, up a mighty 5.7 points. It has commandeered most of it from National, which has plunged back under Labour to 36.6 percent, down 4.1 points.
The Greens have also suffered in the Hipkins honeymoon, falling to 8.1, down 1.4 percentage points. ACT has escaped unscathed though with a teeny bump of 0.7 taking it to 10.7 percent.
Newshub
Jenna Lynch was also wetting her knickers at the ‘reversal’ of Labour’s fortunes. Both she and Jessica Mutch-McKay were in hip-wiggling ecstasy at these results. Both were making rather remarkable assumptions on the first poll of the year.
My feeling is that this was to be expected, but now the hard stuff hits the fan for Hipkins, starting tomorrow with the end of the RUC discounts. That is going to force up freight costs which will then flow through into prices and exacerbate inflation. In another month the discount comes off petrol and prices are expected to leap by 40c a litre.
The economy is on life support and Labour has no new ideas. The budget will be their last throw of the dice. That and canning the most offensive of their policy platforms.
My gut tells me this will prove to be a dead cat bounce for Labour and Chris Hipkins.
What the poll actually shows is that a lazy opposition, who are still on holiday, are paying the price for their idleness over summer.
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