Luxon is trying to steady the ship before the election year proper begins. Whether this mix of promotions, sideways moves and quiet exits delivers the discipline and focus National needs remains to be seen.
The next few months will be critical. If the economy does not improve and the coalition keeps stumbling, the whispers in the National caucus will grow into open discontent.
National needs to lift its game fast if it wants to avoid becoming a one-term government. So far the signs are not encouraging. The Easter poll will tell us more, but voters have seen enough half-arsed fixes to be sceptical.
The cabinet reshuffle on Thursday will be spun as business as usual. Do not believe it for one second. The meetings, the leaks, the grumpiness in Auckland and the raw numbers in caucus tell their own story.
Voters are going to go into the election with National doing the same as it always does. They will tell voters that they are less shit than Labour. But are they?
Talk of a coup exists only in the feeble minds of legacy media. Luxon will hang on in quiet desperation, getting regular coaching from John Key, like he did last Friday, until Key nods at a proposed successor.
These poll ratings act like a boat anchor, holding National back from any real momentum. With an election looming later this year, Luxon’s personal unpopularity may well sink the party’s chances if they don’t address it sharpish.
This is why the election of 2023 now feels like a broken promise.
Dull or disciplined? The PM’s State of the Nation laid out an election strategy built on continuity and trust.
Is this an election-winning strategy? It feels like more of the same theme from National – not being as shit as Labour and spending a bit less.
Could a politician be any more disingenuous? Could a politician be any more duplicitous? National may not even be in government in 2029. They may not even exist as a party the way they are going.
Luxon is wounded. He just does not know it yet. He thinks he has dodged the bullet but the damage is done. The whispers are there, the polls are tanking and we all know what they are confirming.
Luxon’s grip is slipping and no amount of spin will change that. National needs to wake up before it’s too late.
Pee Kay No Minister Heather du Plessis-Allan, in the article below, states, “But if they choose to stick with Luxon, they have to figure out how to limit his damage to the party’s polling.” What about National asking themselves this question, “If we do stick with Luxon, how
Luxon might insist it is not a question, but the reality is staring him in the face. National needs a reset and the mutterings in the caucus suggest it could come sooner than he thinks.
With parliament rising soon, the clock’s ticking. Will Luxon steady the ship or will the agitators light the fuse?
