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Methamphetamine has become dramatically cheaper over the past seven years, even as authorities report record seizures, according to the latest New Zealand Drug Trends Survey.
The annual online survey of over 8,800 people who use drugs shows wholesale prices of the illegal and harmful substance (per gram sold to dealers) have fallen by 41%, while street-level “point” prices (0.1 gram retail deals) have dropped by 27%.
Once adjusted for inflation, the declines are closer to 50%. A gram of meth that cost an average of $563 in 2017 now sells for about $253 in inflation-adjusted terms in 2025.
This trend is striking because retail prices of illegal drugs often remain unchanged for years. For example, a cannabis “tinny” (about 1–1.5 grams) has typically cost $20–25 in New Zealand for more than two decades, reflecting the need for quick and simple transactions.
The sustained price falls therefore point to deeper changes in how the methamphetamine market is operating. Australia has recently observed a similar pattern.
[…] All of this raises critical questions: what is driving these price drops, how long will they continue and what might they ultimately mean for meth’s social toll?
We can point to several factors that might be contributing to the falling prices.
Illegal drug markets are often assumed to be controlled by organised crime groups who are able to keep prices high. But the widespread price declines across New Zealand – including in regions with the strongest gang presence – suggest the market remains competitive.
Could the price drops reflect sellers feeling they face less risk of arrest? Given New Zealand Police and Customs have been reporting record seizures every year since 2019, that doesn’t seem plausible.
In 2019, the law was changed to direct police not to arrest people found with small amounts of drugs unless it was in the public interest. While this may have reduced enforcement risk for users, it was not intended to change the situation for dealers selling grams.
If anything, the policy partly aimed to free up resources to focus on suppliers.
We might also assume that meth has simply become cheaper to make. With multiple ways to synthesise methamphetamine using different precursor chemicals, manufacturers may have found lower-cost methods over time.
But production costs can make up only a fraction of the final street price, with large mark-ups added along the distribution chain. That means even big savings in production may have little effect on retail prices.
Might the trend signal fewer buyers? Methamphetamine might well be reaching the end of its “product cycle” as cocaine gains popularity. Yet wastewater data show meth consumption doubled in late 2024 – hardly an indication of falling demand.
As a side note, meth isn’t actually that popular. In global drug surveys it often ranks as low as five per cent or less in popularity. This means that while there may be less users than what the media leads you to believe, those that do use, use it a lot.
The most convincing explanation lies away from New Zealand’s shores, in new global sources of methamphetamine supply.
New Zealand and Australia have traditionally sourced methamphetamine from lawless regions of Asia known as the Golden Triangle. More recently, however, growing seizures have been linked to Mexican drug cartels, often transiting through Canada.
Australian authorities say these cartels can supply methamphetamine at less than one-third the price of Asian producers and that about 70% of seized meth now originates from North America.
It may also explain the rising supply of cocaine in New Zealand, with Mexican cartels deeply involved in global cocaine trafficking. Methamphetamine trafficked from Mexico is also often routed through Pacific Island countries such as Fiji, Tonga and Samoa, which have strong trade, transport and cultural links with New Zealand.
On top of this, digital drug markets – including darknets and social media sales – may be lowering the cost of finding alternative sellers and better deals, increasing competition and pushing prices down.
[…] While we believe Mexican cartel supply is the most likely driver of methamphetamine price declines, the other explanations cannot be ruled out.
More research is needed to better understand the supply-and-demand implications and effects of changes in enforcement intensity, risk of violence and victimisation, production costs, price formation and modern digital drug markets.”
It is almost certainly the case that the cartels are the reason for the price drop. Some years ago I predicted that New Zealand would be flooded with cocaine as the cartels set up shop in the Pacific. While “flooded” may have turned out to be a bit of an over exaggeration, nonetheless it’s basically come true.
I’ve never tried either cocaine or meth. I know of only person who was a meth addict. I’ve been told that for her it was like ordinary life being grey and dull while meth makes everything bright and colourful with unicorns. Plus you can do things like write the next best seller, change the world for better and make the next big scientific discovery. This begs the question, why don’t you? I mean, if you’re going to be a meth addict, at least be a productive one.
Meth floods the brain with dopamine which at high levels causes psychosis. So while I don’t particularly care if someone chooses to use meth, I do care about those who are around them. This is why I strongly believe that the law should be changed to come down much more heavily on those that choose to use it and as a result cause harm to others.
All this shows the law has no effect on the prices of illegal drugs. In fact illegal drugs are actually cheaper than legal ones. For example you could get an ecstasy pill for between $20 to $30 and go out with friends for the night, or you could spend double or triple that on a night out on the booze.
So the cartels are here and have probably been here for a while, pushing cheap but potent meth. Fortunately though we haven’t seen the level of violence associated with the cartels. And I don’t think we ever will.
Something we can be thankful for I guess.
