The Week at The Good Oil, 31 Oct to 5 Nov

One day out and the overhang argument is still the whole election. Luxon is defending a list seat, Winston is carrying the right, and two final polls say electorate seats decide it. Here is what we ran from Friday 31 October to Thursday 5 November.

Cam's columns

• Two Final Polls Say Overhangs Decide It, and the Left Is Banking on One (Paid). The final Verian and Curia polls both say electorate seats decide it, and the left is counting on a Te Pāti Māori overhang from about one per cent of the party vote.
• Winston Peters Is Carrying the Right on His Back. (Paid). A Freshwater Strategy deck on the Platform has National down 12 points since 2023. NZ First is holding the right bloc together, and the numbers check out.
• Swarbrick Wants the Treasury Keys and Calls It Bullying When You Mention Them (Paid). Chloe Swarbrick asked for the most powerful job in government. National quoted her. Now she says she is being cyber-bullied.
• Luxon’s Six Giants and the Seat He Is Really Defending (Paid). National says the split-vote push threatens the country. Look closer and it is one list seat, and Luxon has a funny idea of who counts as a giant.
• National Would Rather Police Its Donor Than Win the Argument (Paid). Harry Mowbray spent $35 on a domain telling centre-right voters to split. Someone complained. He assumes it was National.

Quick Hits

• Quick Hit: Unemployment Hits 5.7% and Winston Saw It Coming (VIP). Unemployment hit 5.7 per cent, 174,000 out of work, long-term joblessness the highest since 1994. Winston says he told National and ACT to delay the tax cuts.
• Quick Hit: Where National’s 2023 Voters Went (VIP). Only 56.9 per cent of National's 2023 voters still back the party. ACT and NZ First now hold 18.4 per cent of them.
• Quick Hit: What NZ First Says It Delivered for Superannuitants, Checked (VIP). Winston read out a superannuitant list in Papakura. Most of it stands up against the official record. Two are shared credit, one we could not find.
• Quick Hit: What an Overhang Actually Does (VIP). National won 43 electorates last time. The latest Verian poll gives it 34 MPs on party vote. That gap is the whole election argument.
• Quick Hit: Labour built the blob, and even 9,000 cuts won’t shrink it back (VIP). Department bosses must model a 15 per cent staff cut. Even the 55,000 target leaves the public service bigger than the one Labour inherited in 2017.
• Some Regime (VIP). Mallard cries voter suppression. Three days into advance voting, 309,876 have voted, up about 32 per cent on 2023, and 93.6 per cent are enrolled.

Real Good Oil

• The Great Strategic Voting Experiment of 2026 (Paid). Can the right demonstrate discipline at the ballot box? The leftist system seems very worried about the answer.
• ‘Doing the Maths’, Against Democracy (Paid). If done properly, the overhang strategy could shut the left out of power forever. Chris Trotter asks what comes next.
• The Beautiful Lies of “Star Trek” (Paid). An entertaining enough TV show and an utter philosophical mess. No wonder its fans turned it into a progressive cult.

The election, the polls and the overhang

• Poll’s hung Parliament depends on counting Opportunity with the left. Curia's final poll has a 60-60 hung Parliament, but only by parking Opportunity's seven projected MPs with the left.
• A True MMP Election at Last. Voters splitting on the right are saying they want ACT and NZ First to have a bigger say, not a stronger National Party.
• Why Does the National Party Continue to Be So Pig-Headed?. Five days out and National is still doing its utmost to chance a hard-left socialist coalition into power.
• Facts Are Facts Mr Luxon. National has lost the respect of its voter base. For that, everyone on the right could pay a heavy price on Saturday.
• Still Refusing to Accept the Obvious. Peter Williams asks whether there is a more sinister reason National keeps refusing the only tactic that keeps Luxon PM.
• Is This Election Already Over?. By Friday nearly 600,000 votes were cast, 32 per cent more than at the same stage in 2023. Prebble wonders if it is already over.
• ‘That is not true’: Hosking confronts Luxon over vote-splitting claim. Hosking told Luxon his vote-splitting warning was not true. The exchange left National's own interest on the table.
• Police investigate vote-splitting as National's MMP claim escapes watchdog scrutiny. Police are investigating a vote-splitting campaign after an Electoral Commission referral, days before 7 November.
• The Story Everyone Is Missing. Simon O'Connor says Oriini Kaipara's gang-pad visit may say more about the centre-left's future than the latest polls.
• Interesting Election Races: Chris Bishop. Prebble reckons Hutt South matters because electing Chris Bishop would give National a better future leader.
• Who Gets to Run Your Life?. Ani O'Brien drops the policy laundry list and asks what political philosophies actually separate the parties.
• NZ’s Election Is Rigged. Mallard says the coalition tried to rig the election. John McLean asks the obvious follow-up: by whom?
• One Law for All, Or Back to Co-Governance?. Don Brash's final-week pitch: one law for all, or back to co-governance.
• Who Really Runs the Country?. Democracy is not just electing governments. It is ensuring they can govern once they get there.
• Kiwi Borrows Chairs to Explain MMP. Dave tried to explain MMP with borrowed chairs. He ended up on the camping stool, off the list.
• Greens Back Satire, Just Not About Themselves. The Greens threatened legal action over Sensible Sentencing Trust attack ads while pushing a law to protect parody and satire.
• The Left Does Not Have a Monopoly. Ani O'Brien on Chloe Swarbrick and selective compassion: compassion for me, contempt for thee.
• Money Does Not Grow On Trees and nor Does Experience. Luxon still talks as if he is running a company. Managing cabinet, coalition partners and a public service is a different job.
• Would You Trust These Politicians?. Governing demands fiscal discipline, competent execution and tactical clarity at the ballot box.
• Special Snowflake Trigger: The Perigo Perspective. Lindsay Perigo's least evil of the very evil, with Woke Social Justice Warrior snowflakes front of mind.

Around New Zealand

• End Bail-Outs to Force Councils to Confront Decisions. Wellington spent irresponsibly. The bill is due. Eric Crampton says nobody else should cover it.
• Stay the Course With Maths Reforms. The evidence for Stanford's maths reforms is as good as it gets this soon after implementation. Stay the course.
• Regaining Confidence Despite Rising Costs. Retail NZ found 75.1 per cent of retailers expect to meet or beat sales targets in the final quarter, despite rising costs.
• Who pays: Parents or taxpayers? Govt draws the line at 20. Unemployed 18 and 19-year-olds face a parental income test above $67,225. The government draws the line at 20.
• Young Kiwis struggle to find work as regions turn to migrant labour. Young Kiwis cannot find work. Regions still turn to migrant labour. Stats NZ lays out the paradox.
• Full-time jobs fall as wages fail to keep pace with prices. New Zealand lost 17,000 full-time jobs in the September quarter. Wage growth fell well behind inflation.
• More Kiwis raid KiwiSaver for hardship than to buy their first home. More than 44,000 raided KiwiSaver for hardship in the first nine months of 2026, more than used it for a first home.
• MBIE boss who misled Parliament chaired group that kept zombie $50m project alive. MBIE boss Nic Blakeley chaired the group that kept a failed $50m biometric project alive, then said he was not closely involved.
• First move-on orders target disorder, not rough sleeping. Police issued 29 move-on orders in nine days. None was for mere rough sleeping or begging.
• Labour dominates Ipsos poll, but rival survey raises questions about online-only sampling. Ipsos has Labour ahead on 16 of 20 issues. An earlier survey with different methods gives National the lead on seven of ten.
• Labour’s voter suppression claims grow as Mallard invokes Trump. Labour figures warn of voter suppression. Mallard invokes Trump. Sean Plunket has questions.
• From the pub door to social media: The 18+ card's bigger ambitions. Officials eyed the digital Kiwi Access Card for social-media age checks ahead of under-16 restrictions.
• Digital ID: What could actually go wrong if the privacy safeguards work?. Govt.nz says digital credentials stay encrypted on your phone. Combined business records are another matter.
• Ardern calls for unity after COVID-era divisions, but what of her own government's legacy?. Ardern urges unity after COVID-era divisions, speaking in Sydney. Her own government's legacy sits quietly offstage.
• Wealth tax flight risk: Why New Zealand isn't Norway. Norway research soft-pedals wealth-tax flight. Terry Baucher warns Australia next door makes NZ different.
• Transparency push singles out right-wing donors while unions remain in the shadows. Newsroom wants third-party donor disclosure, then aims most of the suspicion at the centre-right while unions stay quiet.
• RNZ defends Wong coverage, then stops posting about her. RNZ says it is confident balance is being achieved on Wong coverage. Lynch says it stopped posting about her after he asked.
• Wong marathon questions become test of political and media integrity. Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong finished the Auckland Marathon in a bib registered to another woman. Questions followed.
• Laws doubles down before apology as Luxon rules him out of Cabinet. Luxon ruled Michael Laws out of Cabinet after the NZ First candidate mocked Opportunity, then doubled down before apologising.
• BNZ profit falls 23% to $1.16b as technology costs and bad debts rise. BNZ profit fell 23 per cent to $1.16b as technology costs and bad debts rose.
• 'Common sense has prevailed': Agriculture will remain a standalone subject at high schools. Agriculture stays a standalone high-school subject after the government reversed course. Common sense prevailed, they say.
• NZ’s Natural Health Products Regulations. Natural health product regulation submissions closed at 11:59 pm. Another watchdog night.
• A Complex Challenge for the Future. ML Kearney on immigration, superannuation and welfare, and what multiculturalism does to cohesion.
• That Time I Was a Candidate for the Women’s Rights Party. Yvonne van Dongen on the accidental politician years with the Women's Rights Party.
• Is This Pork Barrel Politics?. Shane Jones and a pre-election regional energy handout. Pee Kay calls pork barrel politics.
• It Seems Diversity Is Redefined. Karl du Fresne on a Golden Bay festival cancelling an Israeli DJ. Diversity, redefined.
• Who Runs the Country After the Election. When officials, not ministers, decide what the public gets, they override the voters' choice.
• Recognise the Value of Every Human Life. Alwyn Poole: teach every child for what they can become, not as if their past is a ceiling.
• The Frauds and Lies. Psychology's greatest hits were wrong, false or fraudulent. Then comes the advice if Labour wins.
• Google turns off AI for schoolchildren by default. Google turns AI off by default for school accounts. The ed-tech debate writes itself.

Across the Tasman

• Spare Us the Lectures from Has-Beens. Ardern lands a professor of practice gig. The lefty lobster-pot is a bottomless gilded cage.
• Tell Me This Isn’t a Government Operation. Australia Post and a fleet of electric lemons gathering dust. Millions wasted, again.
• Jeff Knows Hubris When He Sees It. Jeff Kennett warns the Vic Libs not to get carried away with the polls. He learned the hard way.
• The Only Way Is Down. One Nation takes the lead as Labor and the coalition keep slumping. Albanese's only way is down.
• This Is How the Left ‘Tone It Down’?. A One Nation volunteer bashed with a baseball bat in Victoria. This is how the left tones it down.
• I’ve Seen Flatworms with Greater Self-Awareness. Ardern lectures on public mistrust and binary thinking. Flatworms have shown more self-awareness.
• ABC Wails as Luvvie Jailed. Children's author Craig Silvey jailed over child exploitation material. The ABC despairs for the bookshelves.
• So Much for ‘Tone It Down’. State-funded media bury news of leftist violence again. Tone it down means bury it.
• Would They like Valet Parking with That?. Inner-city EV owners want dedicated parking on top of the subsidies. Valet next?
• Australia Dragged Back to GFC Days. Australians are worse off than they were 18 years ago. Back to GFC living standards.

Britain, Europe and the world

• The Tommy Robinson Show Trial. Tommy Robinson convicted 10-2 at Southwark on harassment counts. John Surtees calls it a show trial.
• Do You Girls Have a Licence for That Tea Party?. A 12-year-old's pretend teddy bear cafe drew a council investigation for illegal trading.
• Speech in Britain: An Endangered Liberty. Britain now compels the right speech through DEI protocols and dignity codes, not just bans the wrong speech.
• He’s Admitting This Is Failing. London's police chief says the city is so lawless its diverse criminals need a matching constabulary. Laurie Wastell hears a confession.
• Time to Look Back in Anger. Paul Birch on the Nowak family and an ITV documentary the Met would rather you did not watch.
• Letter from the North. Letter from the North is back with a UK budget update from the West Country.
• Has China Passed the Tipping-Point?. Geriatrics overtake juniors in the Middle Kingdom. Has China passed the tipping point?
• North Korea blamed for US$6.3 billion crypto heist pulled off in just 20 minutes. North Korean hackers blamed for a US$6.3b Binance heist, most of it gone in 20 minutes.
• Canada Moves to Expand Euthanasia. Canada moves to expand MAiD. Ethical issues for society's most vulnerable.
• Climate Change Suffers From Reality. Democrats' climate agenda takes a back seat the moment higher fuel prices meet politics.
• How ‘Woke 1.0’ Gave Birth to a New Strain of Socialism. Gain-of-function Marxism escaped the Woke 1.0 lab. Tyler O'Neil says do not spread it.
• The West’s Free Speech Consensus Is Fracturing. European crackdowns on citizen speech are provoking Washington. Free expression as a transatlantic fault line.

Culture wars

• It’s Not the ‘Manosphere’ Wot Dun It. Cancel culture looks a lot like girls' clique behaviour turbocharged by smartphones.
• Young Men Care About Consent Very Much. Young men care about consent because a jilted date could send them to prison.
• The Gender Bias of AI Is Stark. AI's gender bias is stark, and it is not the bias feminists want you to see.
• The Bearded Lady of Oxford. Oxford's bearded lady gets to monster unwilling women at work. Britain used to keep freakshows in Whitechapel.
• How One Man Wrote a Modern Myth. A single Wikipedia editor fabricated the Islamic Golden Age. The Ministry of Truth would be proud.
• Politics may depend more on how macho you feel than whether you are a man. How masculine or feminine you feel may predict politics better than biological sex, in a US study of 3,000 adults.

Science, history and the odd bit of fun

• The ‘Good Old Days’ Weren’t. Pre-industrial life was miserable, dirty and all too short. H G Wells had the toothache test ready.
• Did They Read the Stories at All?. Whackadoodle occultists tried to summon Lovecraft's Elder Gods. Did they even read the stories?
• A cracking discovery? Egg nutrient linked to higher IQ scores. Maternal high-dose choline linked to nearly eight IQ points higher at age four in an American study.
• They Knew Microplastics Were a Threat, In 1974. Scientists flagged microplastics in 1974. Is it time to go back to glass bottles?
• The Earth Abides Without End. The world has been about to end since forever. Yet here it still is.
• The Consequences of Gen Z’s Risk Aversion. People more willing to take risks intend to have more kids. Gen Z's risk aversion has a baby problem.
• To Save the Environment We Need to Bring Back Plastic Straws. A Korean study found plastic straws beat paper and others on 10 of 16 environmental measures.
• Make Room for the Telegraph Diaspora. Telegraph readers are washing up on Substack. Laura Dodsworth says budge up and put the kettle on.

Ten@10 and the cartoons

• Ten@10, the stories they chose not to tell you: 2026/202, 2026/203, 2026/204, 2026/205.
• Cartoons of the day (Paid): Decline of the West, Running for Cover, Dog Tucker.

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